On Thursday, November 29, noon-14 pm, Simon van Norden, from the HEC Montreal will be the speaker of the Research Seminar in Economics. He will present his research paper on "Modeling Systemic House Price Risk" at Kaminzimmer (room 202), Boltzmannstraße 20, 14195 Berlin.
Economists and policy makers have become increasingly aware of the contribution of house price risk for overall financial fragility. We model the determinants of house price risk at the state level, including supply, demand and non-fundamental factors. Using quantile regressions, we find that some variables principally affect mean house price changes, while others skew the distribution of such changes towards relatively more or less downside risk. Inter-state differences in these variables imply that some states faced much larger increases in downside risk during the recent Financial Crisis, consistent with the observed differences in housing price declines.
For further information about the Research Seminar in Economics and its program, please click here.