Research Seminar by Günter Coenen (European Central Bank)
News from Jun 13, 2016
On Thursday, June 23, 5-7 pm, Günter Coenen of the European Central Bank will be the speaker of the Quantitative Economic Colloquium. He will present his research paper "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State-Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE-VAR, and VAR Models" on at Kaminzimmer (room 202), Boltzmannstraße 20, Berlin-Dahlem.
The predictive likelihood is useful for ranking models in forecast comparison exercises using Bayesian inference. We discuss how it can be estimated, by means of marginalization, for any subset of the observables in linear Gaussian state-space models. We compare macroeconomic density forecastes for the euro area of a DSGE model to those of a DSGE-VAR, a BVAR, and a multivariate random walk over 1999Q1-2011Q4. While the BVAR generally provides superior forecasts, its performance deteriorates substantially with the onset of the Great Recession. This is particularly notable for longer-horizon real GDP forecasts, where the DSGE and DSGE-VAR models perform better.
For further information about the Quantitative Economic Colloquium and its program, please click here.