Alessandra Pelloni is a Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics and Finance at the Univeristy of Rome.
Emanuel Gasteiger Price setting frequency and the Phillips curve We develop a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous price setting frequency. Whether a firm updates its price in a given period depends on an analysis of expected cost and benefits modelled by a discrete choice process. A firm decides to update the price when expected benefits outweigh expected cost and then resets the price optimally. The model predicts that prices are more flexible during expansions and less flexible during recessions. Our quantitative analysis shows that contrary to the standard NK model, the assumed price setting behaviour: (i) is consistent with micro data on price setting frequency; (ii) gives rise to a non-linear Phillips curve that is steeper during expansions and flatter during recessions; (iii) explains shifts in the Phillips curve associated with different historical episodes without relying on implausible high cost-push shocks and nominal rigidities inconsistent with micro data; (iv) improves the macroeconomic time series fit of a medium-scale NK model over the sample 1959 to 2019.
Giacomo Corneo is Professor of Public Finance and Social Policy at the Freie Universität Berlin.
Tobias Heidland is Professor of Economics, specialising in International Macroeconomics at Kiel University, Head of the Research Center “International Development” at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
Alessandra Casarico is Associate Professor of Public Economics at Bocconi University.
Frank Schorfheide is a Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly use this distribution as prior to construct Bayes forecasts for the individual time series. In addition to density forecasts, we construct set forecasts that explicitly target the average coverage probability for the cross-section. We present a novel application in which we forecast bank-level loan charge-off rates for small banks.
Dr. Renaud Foucart is a senior lecturer at the Lancaster University Rituals of Reason: A Choice-Based Approach to the Acceptability of Lotteries in Allocation Problems (with Elias Bouacida) We study revealed preferences towards the use of random procedures in allocation mechanisms. We report the results of an experiment in which subjects vote on a procedure to allocate a reward to half of them. The first possibility is an explicitly random device: the result of a lottery. The second is either an unpredictable procedure they could interpret as meritocratic, or one that is obviously arbitrary. We run all treatments with and without control. We identify an aversion to lotteries and clearly arbitrary procedures across treatments, even though, on aggregate, subjects do not believe any procedure to give them a higher probability of success and there is no correlation between beliefs and outcomes. In line with the literature, we also find evidence of a control premium in most procedures .
Prof. Monika Merz, Ph.D. is a full professor of macroeconomics at the University of Vienna. She holds the Deutsche Bundesbank Guest Professorship in summer semester 2022. Couples’ Time-Use and Aggregate Labor Market Outcomes : We present a model of the time-allocation decision of spouses in order to study the role of heterogeneity in preferences and wages for couples’ labor supply. Spouses differ in their tastes for market consumption and non-market goods and activities, and also in their offered or earned wages. They interact in their choices of market hours, homework, and leisure. We estimate the model for married or cohabiting couples in the 2001/02 wave of the German Time-Use Survey using Bayesian techniques. We generate gender-specific own- and cross-wage elasticities of market hours in the cross-section. Elasticities are significantly larger, if the wage shock is asymmetric across partners, not symmetric. They are small and of comparable size for single earner males and females. Aggregating preferences and wages by gender and comparing outcomes for a representative couple with those from heterogeneous couples yields a discrepancy between the alternative aggregate wage-elasticities. Its size varies with the type of wage shock and the distribution of spouses across the preference-wage space.
Johannes König is a Research Associate at DIW Berlin. The new subsample of the rich (called SOEP-P) is shown to overcome the “missing rich” problem for top wealth and income in the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). In a comprehensive distributional analysis, we quantify now credibly and transparently top wealth and income concentrations, and measure the dependence between top wealth and income. The routes to the top are examined in our new covariate-based classification analysis which establishes the substantial predictive power of inheritances and entrepreneur-ship for membership in the top 1% joint income and wealth group; this group is shown to differ noticeably from the (marginal) top1% in income or wealth.
Prof. Anna Bindler, Ph.D . is an Associate Professor (W2) at the University of Cologne. Her research interests are Applied Microeconomics, Economics of Crime, Law and Economics, Labor Economics. The presentation will be held on-site.
International bribery: Results from an on-line, cross-country, behavioural experiment We report the findings from an on-line, cross-country, behavioural experiment involving an incentivised bribery game. Referencing actual flows of foreign direct investment, we selected the potential bribers in our experiment from subject pools in China, Germany, the UK and the USA, and the potential bribe-takers from subject pools in China, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. Referencing actual international anti-bribery laws, we applied a treatment involving monitors with the power to report bribers who might then be fined. The monitors were located in the same countries as the potential bribers but could monitor and report across countries. As well as behaviours in the bribery game, we elicited measures of the social appropriateness of bribe offering, taking and reporting, and the beliefs of subjects about how others would behave. To date, 2,259 student subjects, 1/3 with experience in public service, have participated in the experiment. Included in our extensive range of findings are the following. The presence of a monitor deters bribery, but only if potential bribers believe that the monitor will report. Beliefs about the likelihood of monitors reporting do not match the reality. And shared national identity reduces the likelihood of a monitor reporting a briber. In addition, we find cross-country differences in behaviours, the social appropriateness of those behaviours and beliefs about others’ behaviours. Marcus Giamattei is a Professor of Macroeconomics at the Bard College in Berlin and an Assistant Professor at the Chair for Economic Theory at the University of Passau.
This paper studies the aggregate and distributional eﬀects of raising the top marginal income tax rate in the presence of tax avoidance. To this end, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents and occupational choice in which entrepreneurs can avoid taxes in two ways. On the extensive margin, entrepreneurs can choose the legal form of their business organization to reduce their tax burden. On the intensive margin, entrepreneurs can shift their income between diﬀerent tax bases. In a quantitative application to the US economy, we ﬁnd that tax avoidance lowers productive eﬃciency and reduces the eﬀectiveness of the top marginal tax rate at lowering inequality.
Abstract: We use school entry cut-off rules to study the effects of schooling on mortality in Germany. Based on the 1970 Census and the full Cause-of-Death Statistics for Germany, we exploit information on the exact date of birth within a regression discontinuity framework. Individuals born just after the school entry cut-off are older when they enter school, and they are three percentage points more likely to earn a higher secondary school leaving certificate. In later life, those individuals born after the school entry cut-off are significantly less likely to die before age 70. Studying the causes of death, we find that the reduced mortality risk is mainly driven by fewer deaths associated with unhealthy behaviours over the life course. Jan Marcus is an Assistant Professor for Econometrics at University Hamburg. His research focuses on causal analysis, economics of education, health economics, and policy evaluation.
Wellbeing and Religious Behaviour During and After Natural Disasters Abstract: As the severity and frequency of natural disasters become more pronounced with climate change and the increased habitation of at-risk areas, it is important to understand how people react to them. This presentation combines two papers on that general topic. We look at natural disasters in the US in a sample of 2.2 million observations, allowing for individual- and county-level factors. The event-study design contrasts changes in outcomes in counties affected by disasters with that of residents in unaffected counties of the same state. In the first paper we look at psychological resilience during and after disasters, measured by changes in hedonic wellbeing. We find that people’s hedonic wellbeing is reduced by approximately 6% of a standard deviation in the first two weeks following the event, with the effect diminishing rapidly thereafter. The negative effects are driven by White, older, and economically advantaged sub-populations, who exhibit less resilience. We find no evidence that existing indices of community resilience moderate impacts. In the second paper we look at religious observances during natural disasters and afterwards. We find that individuals reduce the time spent on prayer during disasters and then rapidly return to baseline, with no indication of sustained changes.
Abstract: Tax perceptions are well-known to determine the economic behavior of individuals. While there is broad evidence on significant tax-related misperceptions, however, little is known on firms’ tax-related misperception. We quantify firms’ tax-related misperception using survey data of 657 German firms. Further, we identify drivers of firms’ tax-related misperception. Our results indicate that firms considerably misperceive their average tax rate (ATR) and marginal tax rate (MTR). Respondents from all kinds of firms such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, and corporations overestimate their ATR, however, corporations to a significantly lower extent. By contrast, our findings on MTRs are inconclusive. Surprisingly, comparing firms’ perception of ATRs with MTRs reveals a missing understanding of basic tax concepts. According to our results, size, legal form, and estimates of tax complexity and tax compliance cost are the main drivers of tax burden misperception.
Abstract: Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected pro-sociality among individuals? After the onset of the pandemic, many charitable appeals were updated to include a reference to COVID-19. Did donors increase their giving in response to such changes? In order to answer these questions, we conducted a real-donation online experiment with more than 4,200 participants from 149 local areas in England and over 21 weeks. First, we varied the fundraising appeal to either include or exclude a reference to COVID-19. We found that including the reference to COVID-19 in the appeal increased donations. Second, in a natural experiment like approach, we studied how the relative local severity of the pandemic and media coverage about local COVID-19 severity affected giving in our experiment. We found that both higher local severity and more related articles increased giving of participants in the respective areas. This holds for different specifications, including specifications with location fixed effects, time fixed effects, a broad set of individual characteristics to account for a potentially changing composition of the sample over time and to account for health- and work-related experiences with and expectations regarding the pandemic. While negative experiences with COVID-19 correlate negatively with giving, both approaches led us to conclude that the pure effect of in creased salience of the pandemic on pro-sociality is positive
Abstract: Women are less financially literate than men. It is unclear whether this gap reflects a lack of knowledge or, rather, a lack of confidence. Our survey experiment shows that women tend to disproportionately respond “do not know” to questions measuring financial knowledge, but when this response option is unavailable, they often choose the correct answer. We estimate a latent class model and predict the probability that respondents truly know the correct answers. We find that about one-third of the financial literacy gender gap can be explained by women’s lower confidence levels. Both financial knowledge and confidence explain stock market participation.
Abstract: Residents of civil war countries must decide whether to stay or flee, often without reliable information about costs and benefits of fleeing. Using original survey data on Syrian refugees, I present evidence that residents solve this information problem by imitating the emigration decision of other residents. However, if everybody imitates others and nobody knows the true costs and benefits of fleeing, then there is a substantial chance that many make the wrong decision. The right decision, for example, is to flee when staying means death. Empirically, however, I find no relationship between survey respondents’ propensity to flee and objective measures of death risk in their origin location in Syria, which perhaps indicates that people make wrong emigration decisions. My findings suggest a new form of humanitarian aid in conflict zones: the distribution of information.
Abstract: Domestic violence is ubiquitous, with millions of women worldwide being repeatedly victimized by their intimate partners. So how should police officers respond to domestic violence incidents in order to maximize the likelihood that battered women will not be victimized again? We develop and apply a novel instrumental variable strategy to explore how arresting batterers is linked to repeat domestic violence. Drawing upon unique and extremely detailed administrative data on hundreds of thousands domestic violence incidents recorded by a major police force in Great Britain, we exploit (i) that the availability and geographical location of patrol officers to assign to respond to an domestic violence incident is "as good as random", and (ii) that patrol officers differ systematically in their propensity to arrest suspected batters. We find that arrest can break cycles of domestic violence, decreasing the probability that victims are revictimized within 12 months by 31 percentage points. Exploiting domestic violence calls initiated by third parties rather than victims, we provide evidence indicating that reductions in domestic violence reporting do not drive the arrest effect. To explain why arrest deters repeat domestic violence, we demonstrate that it paths the way to immediate criminal sanctions against suspected batterers: it increases the likelihood a suspect batterer faces a criminal investigation, is retained in custody during the investigation, and is charged with a crime. In stark contrast to recent calls for a decriminalization of domestic violence, our results suggest that the optimal police response to domestic violence involves a low threshold of tolerance towards batterers.
Abstract: The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines dimensionality reduction, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 146 popular macroeconomic and financial variables using different principal component analysis techniques. Second, we estimate one-step Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the principal components as predictors. Third, we pool the models in forecast clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of different specifications. Our weekly forecasts respond to regime changes in a timely manner to participate in recoveries or to prevent losses. This is also reflected in an improvement of risk-adjusted performance measures as compared to several benchmarks. However, when considering stock market returns, our forecasts do not outperform common benchmarks. Nevertheless, these add statistical and, in particular, economic value during recessions or in declining markets.
Abstract: We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their own judgment. Our results show that, in line with theoretical predictions, an excessive degree of confidence in one's judgment is correlated with lower portfolio diversification, larger stock price forecasting errors, and more extreme political views. Additionally, we find that overconfidence is correlated with voting absenteeism. These results appear to validate our method and show how overconfidence is a bias that permeates several aspects of peoples' life.
Abstract: Motherhood and parental leave interrupt employment relationships, likely imposing costs on firms. We document that mothers who are difficult to replace internally take shorter leave and that their firms hire replacements more often. Introducing more generous parental leave benefits erases the link between mothers’ internal replaceability and their leave duration. In firms with few internal substitutes this reduces employment in the short-, but not longer-term. Firms respond by hiring fewer women of childbearing age into occupations where they are difficult to replace internally. Taken together, motherhood and generous parental leave policies burden firms that have few internal substitutes available.
Asset Price Dynamics and Endogenous Trader Overconfidence Abstract: Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial decision making and commonly associated with excessive trading and asset price volatility. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, “static” personality trait. Using a new experimental design, we show that trader overconfidence is endogenous and co-moves with asset prices; when asset prices go up, overconfidence rises, and when asset prices go down, overconfidence falls. Larger fluctuations in asset prices are met by larger changes in overconfidence. Hence, our results point towards a feedback loop in which overconfidence adds fuel to the flame of existing bubbles.
Ort: Online Presentation
Research Seminar in Economics, Josef Brüderl: "The Age Trajectory of Happiness: How Lack of Causal Reasoning has Produced the Myth of a U-Shaped Age-Happiness Trajectory"
Abstract: A large interdisciplinary literature on the relationship between age and subjective well-being (happiness) has produced very mixed evidence. Virtually every conceivable age-happiness trajectory has been supported by empirical evidence and theoretical arguments. Sceptics may conclude that the social science of happiness can only produce arbitrary results. In this paper we argue that this conclusion is premature. Instead, the methodological toolbox that has been developed by the modern literature on causal inference gives scholars everything they need to arrive at valid conclusions: the causal inference toolbox only must be applied by happiness researchers. We identify four potential sources of bias that may distort the assessment of the age-happiness relationship. By causal reasoning we derive a model specification that avoids these biases. For an empirical illustration, we use the longest running panel study with information on happiness, the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2017; N persons=70,922; N person-years =565,703). With these data we demonstrate the relevance of the four biases and how combinations of different biases can reproduce almost any finding from the literature. Most biases tend to produce a spuriously U-shaped age trajectory, the most prominent finding from the literature. In contrast, with our specification we find a (nearly monotonic) declining age-happiness trajectory.
Ort: Online Presentation
Ort: Online Presentation
Ort: Online Presentation
Research Seminar in Economics, Evi Pappa: "What are the likely macroeconomic effects of the EU Recovery plan"
Abstract: We examine the dynamic macroeconomic effects of the two largest EU regional structural funds. On average, ERDF funds have significant positive short term consequences on regional macroeconomic variables and gains dissipate almost entirely within three years. ESF funds have negative impact effects on regional variables, but their average cumulative medium term multipliers are positive and economically significant. We detect important regional asymmetries which may induce differential transition paths and outlooks for economic transformation. Location, level of development, EU tenure, Euro area membership and national borders account for part of the asymmetries. We present a two-region equilibrium model with sticky prices and endogenous growth through investment in R&D and human capital that reproduces the facts and explains some of the observed asymmetries. The policy implications for the newly created Recovery fund are discussed.
Ort: Online Presentation
Abstract: We consider a non-cooperative model in which the husband and wife decide on parental leave and the allocation of time between child rearing and the labor market. They can choose the non-cooperative outside option or cooperate by reaching an agreement of specialization, in which the wife specializes in raising kids while the husband works and transfers consumption to his wife. The model shows that "egalitarian" couples (with a sufficiently small gender wage gap) do not specialize and play the outside option, while "traditional" (with a medium gender wage gap) and "very traditional" (with a sufficiently high gender wage gap) couples do have such an agreement. A expansion in paternity leave reduces the net benefits from the agreement and moves traditional couples to their outside option, where women work more and men do more childcare. As a result, the cost of raising children increases , and fertility declines. Assuming a loss of utility from children in the case of divorce, lower fertility increases the probability of divorce. Using Spanish data and RDD analysis, we confirm our model’s predictions. Specifically, we find that, among traditional couples, the two-week paternity leave introduced in 2007 resulted in a reduction in fertility by up to 15%, an increase in the probability to divorce by 37%, an increase female employment by up to 7 percentage points, and an increase in father’s childcare time by as much as an hour per day.
Ort: Online Presentation
Abstract: Spatial dynamic microsimulations allow for the multivariate analysis of complex sys-tems with geographic segmentation. A synthetic replica of the system is stochastically projected into future periods using micro-level transition probabilities. These should accurately represent the dynamics of the system to allow for reliable simulation outcomes. In practice, transition probabilities are unknown and must be estimated from suitable survey data. This can be challenging when the dynamics vary locally. Survey data often lacks in regional detail due to confidentiality restrictions and limited sampling resources. In that case, transition probability estimates may misrepresent regional dynamics due to insufficient local observations and coverage problems. The simulation process subsequently fails to provide an authentic evolution of the system. A constrained maximum likelihood approach for probability alignment to solve these issues is proposed. It accounts for regional heterogeneity in transition dynamics through the consideration of external benchmarks from administrative records. It is proven that the method is consistent. A parametric bootstrap for uncertainty estimation is presented. Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the approach with an existing method for probability alignment. Furthermore, an empirical application to labor force estimation based on the German Microcensus is provided.
Ort: Online Presentation
Abstract: Elderly households hold most of their wealth in housing, maintain high levels of wealth throughout their retirement, and often leave bequests. The value of their houses are subject to potentially large shocks that can affect their financial circumstances in retirement. To what extent do these shocks affect their savings, consumption, and bequests? Answering this question requires separating precautionary savings, bequest motives, and the desire to remain in one's home. I develop and estimate a structural model of retirement savings decisions with realistic risks, housing, and heterogeneity in bequest preferences. I exploit exogenous policy changes to the taxation of housing and bequests, subjective bequest probabilities and rich longitudinal data on wealth composition to separately identify the different motives for holding wealth and spending in retirement. Estimated bequest motives differ across the households and roughly half of the sample has no bequest motive. House price changes are quantitatively important and a large fraction of increases are passed on to future generations. I use the estimated model to evaluate the current structure of disregard eligibility for (Medicaid-like) programs that insure retirees. I find that for every pound it costs the government, increasing the disregards for liquid assets provides more insurance value than increasing the disregards for houses.
Ort: Online Presentation
Research Seminar in Economics, Bernd Fitzenberger: "The role of unemployment and job change when estimating the returns to migration"
Abstract: Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, we focus on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and employment during the last few months before migration. We find sizeable positive earnings and employment gains of migration both in comparison to staying or job change. The gains vary considerably with pre-migration earnings and with the counterfactual considered. Future migrants have worse expectations for their labor market prospects in the East and migrants show a greater openness to mobility.
Ort: Online Presentation
Research Seminar in Economics, Arnaud Chevalier: "Asian Gold: Expected Returns to Crime and Thieves Behaviour"
Abstract: Where are crimes committed? We explore how variations in the expected returns to crime affects the location of burglaries in the UK. Our identify- cation strategy relies on the common perception in the UK that families of South Asian descent store a substantial amount of gold jewellery. Move- ments on the international market for gold affect the expected gains from targeting these households, and consequently the location of burglaries. Us- ing a neighbourhood level panel on reported crime, we find that when the price of gold increases, neighbourhoods with a larger share of South Asian households face a disproportionate increase in property crime relative to other neighbourhoods in the same local authority. We conduct a battery of tests to eliminate alternative explanations.
Ort: Online Presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Klaus Zimmermann: "Social Assimilation and Labor Market Outcomes of Migrants in China"
Abstract: Previous research has found identity to be relevant for international migration, but has neglected internal mobility as in the case of the Great Chinese Migration. However, the context of the identities of migrants and their adaption in the migration process is likely to be quite different. The gap is closed by examining social assimilation and the effect on the labourmarket outcomes of migrants in China, the country with the largest record of internal mobility. Using instrumental variable estimation, the study finds that identifying as local residents significantly increase migrants’ hourly wages and reduce hours worked, although their monthly earnings remained barely changed. Further findings suggest that migrants with strong local identity are more likely to use local networks in job search, and to obtain jobs with higher average wages and lower average hours worked per day.
Ort: Online presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Malte Sandner: "Prenatal and Infancy Home Visiting in Germany: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial on Child and Maternal Outcomes at Child Age 7"
Abstract: This study exploits a randomized controlled trial to investigate the effects of a German home visiting program (Pro Kind) for disadvantaged families on child and maternal outcomes at child’s age 7. The intervention started during pregnancy and continued until the second birthday. We present results five years after the end of the home visits. We use data from telephone interviews, on-site interviews, and developmental tests to assess children’s and mothers’ mental health, life satisfaction, cognitive and social development, parenting behavior, signs of child abuse or neglect, and the family’s socio-economic status. Furthermore, we access administrative data to obtain information regarding the mother’s and child’s usage of health care services, and mother’s welfare usage and employment history. We find that Pro Kind has several positive effects on reported child behavior. For mothers, Pro Kind reduces violent parenting and increases mental health. Additionally, mothers in the treatment group have more second births and are less months employed than in the control group indicating that mother in the treatment group focus more on their family life. Overall, the results suggest that the Pro Kind intervention has long lasting effects and changed the life of the participating families sustainable in many domains.
Ort: Online presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Jochem de Bresser: "Preferences for income redistribution: a new survey instrument and experimental evidence"
Abstract : This paper proposes a new survey instrument to measure preferences for income redistribution. Starting from the status quo, respondents construct their preferred distribution of after-tax income by changing the tax rates of the bottom four income quintiles. Taxes for the top quintile update automatically to keep the size of the govern-ment budget ﬁxed and incorporate realistic adjustment of taxable income (e.g. changes in labor supply or tax evasion). The new measure is quantitative, comparable across individuals and focuses on redistribution without simultaneous changes in social insur-ance or the size of the government. Moreover, it connects outcomes with the policy tools available to aﬀect them and engages respondents by dynamically updating the income distribution both graphically and numerically. Data are collected in the LISS panel, a large scientiﬁc panel that is representative for the Dutch population. The results indicate that the status quo is optimal for about half of the sample and that the other half would prefer a more equal distribution. Only 5% opt for more inequality, but not beyond a ﬂat-tax. Two information treatments inform respondents about the eﬃciency costs of redistribution, updated dynamically, and the most important income sources across income groups. The latter prompts respondents to stick to the status quo rather than increase equality, while eﬃciency costs lead to smaller deviations without changing their incidence.
Ort: Online presentation
Abstract : In light of rising expenditure, many social insurance programs face pressure to cut back their generosity to remain sustainable. Such reforms are often accompanied by the idea that individuals can obtain private insurance. In this project, we investigate how the private disability insurance (DI) market responds to a large change in public DI in Germany. Using a combination of administrative data on public DI claims and data from a large private insurance provider, we analyze the reform of 2001, which abolished a type of public DI for younger birth cohorts. We document that the private DI market multiplies in size after the reform. Results from a difference-in-difference strategy suggest a significant causal effect on private DI coverage among affected individuals. Yet, the estimated post-reform coverage rate remains modest. Moreover, we find that the share of privately insured individuals is lower among those with higher occupational disability risk and with lower income.
Ort: Online presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Phoebe Ishak: "The Effect of Natural Resource Income Shocks on Human Capital: Theory-Inspired Evidence"
Abstract: We explore the effects of persistent income shocks on human capital using oil price fluctuations in a large sample of relevant African countries and employing micro data from multiple waves of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Theoretically, such shocks enable human capital investment via the standard income effect; but also crowd it out because of substitutability between natural resource and human capital income sources – so the net outcome can go either way. Our model also suggests that the relative strength of the two effects depends on the age at which the shock is experienced and the affected gender. Consistent with these insights, we find that income shocks in early life enhance educational attainment and other derived outcomes; but reduce them if experienced in adolescence, especially for females. These results survive multiple robustness checks, and their broader implications are discussed.
Ort: Online presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich: "Was kann der Mietendeckel zur Entspannung des Berliner Wohnungsmarkts leisten?"
Ort: Online presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Tim Lohse: "Pecunia non olet - On the self-selection into (dis)honest earning opportunities"
We study self-selection into earning money in an honest or dishonest fashion based on individuals. attitudes toward truthful reporting. We propose a decision-theoretic framework where individuals willingness to pay for honest earnings is determined by their (behavioral) lying costs. Our laboratory experiment identifies lying costs as the decisive factor causing self-selection into honest earning opportunities for individuals with high costs and into cheating opportunities for those prepared to misreport. Our experimental setup allowsus to recover individual lying costs and their distribution in the population.
Ort: Online presentation
Research Seminar in Economics Regina Riphahn: "Long-run effects of wage subsidies on maternal labor market outcomes"
We use rich and precise administrative data to study the causal effect of subsidized employment on first time mothers' labor market outcomes up to 8 years after the birth. We apply propensity score matching combined with an event study design to determine the causal effects of taking up a subsidized Minijob after a first birth. We compare this employment choice to similar but unsubsidized, i.e., regular employment. Our results indicate that mothers who take up Minijob employment after a first birth are significantly less likely to be regularly employed and earn significantly lower wages even 8 years after the birth. The high rate of Minijob employment among first time mothers after the birth drives a substantial share of the child penalty of German mothers.
Research Seminar in Economics Ulrich Rendtel: "Misst der Berliner Mietspiegel die ortsübliche Vergleichsmiete? Ein Vergleich mit dem Mikrozensus 2018"
Mit dem Wohnmodul des Mikrozensus 2018 ist es erstmals möglich, Wohnungsmieten lokal auf einen 100m x 100m Gitter zu analysieren. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit, die Wohnlagen des Berliner Mietspiegels im Mikrozensus abzubilden. Da auch weitere Bestimmungsgrößen des Mietspiegels zur Verfügung stehen, können Vergleiche mit dem Berliner Tabellenmietspiegel 2019 durchgeführt werden. Der Vortrag geht der Frage nach, ob die sehr hohen Nonresponse-Raten bei der Erhebung des Berliner Mietspiegels eventuell zu einer Verzerrung der Messung der ortsüblichen Vergleichsmiete geführt haben. Hier ist Mikrozensus mit Teilnahmepflicht eindeutig im Vorteil. Weiterhin wird ein alternativer Regressionsmietspiegel für Berlin präsentiert, der neben den Wohnlagen des Mietspiegels auch Postleitzahlgebiete berücksichtigt. Die Analyse berücksichtigt zwei Auswahlebenen: Einmal die Auswahl der neuen Mietverhältnisse der letzten vier Jahre sowie die Berücksichtigung aller Mietverhältnisse. Die Vergleichsmiete des Mietspiegels, die neben den Neuvermietungen auch Haushalte mit Mietanpassungen in den letzten 4 Jahren berücksichtigt, sollte zwischen diesen Mikrozensus-Werten liegen. Der Regressionsmietspiegel weist auf bedeutende regionale Unterschiede im Berliner Mietniveau hin. Weiterhin kann die Entwicklung der Mietspreise in Berlin und deren sich beschleunigender Anstieg eindrucksvoll dargestellt werden.
Ort: Online presentation (German)