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Seminar schedule

 

Research Seminar in Economics, Mathias Huebener

Abstract:  Motherhood and parental leave interrupt employment relationships, likely imposing costs on firms. We document that mothers who are difficult to replace internally take shorter leave and that their firms hire replacements more often. Introducing more generous parental leave benefits erases the link between mothers’ internal replaceability and their leave duration. In firms with few internal substitutes this reduces employment in the short-, but not longer-term. Firms respond by hiring fewer women of childbearing age into occupations where they are difficult to replace internally. Taken together, motherhood and generous parental leave policies burden firms that have few internal substitutes available.

04.11.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
11.11.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
18.11.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
25.11.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
02.12.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
09.12.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
16.12.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30
20.01.2022 | 12:15 - 13:30
27.01.2022 | 12:15 - 13:30
03.02.2022 | 12:15 - 13:30
10.02.2022 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Steffen Ahrens

Asset Price Dynamics and Endogenous Trader Overconfidence Abstract:   Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial decision making and commonly associated with excessive trading and asset price volatility. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, “static” personality trait. Using a new experimental design, we show that trader overconfidence is endogenous and co-moves with asset prices; when asset prices go up, overconfidence rises, and when asset prices go down, overconfidence falls. Larger fluctuations in asset prices are met by larger changes in overconfidence. Hence, our results point towards a feedback loop in which overconfidence adds fuel to the flame of existing bubbles.

Ort: Online Presentation

15.07.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Josef Brüderl: "The Age Trajectory of Happiness: How Lack of Causal Reasoning has Produced the Myth of a U-Shaped Age-Happiness Trajectory"

Abstract:   A large interdisciplinary literature on the relationship between age and subjective well-being (happiness) has produced very mixed evidence. Virtually every conceivable age-happiness trajectory has been supported by empirical evidence and theoretical arguments. Sceptics may conclude that the social science of happiness can only produce arbitrary results. In this paper we argue that this conclusion is premature. Instead, the methodological toolbox that has been developed by the modern literature on causal inference gives scholars everything they need to arrive at valid conclusions: the causal inference toolbox only must be applied by happiness researchers. We identify four potential sources of bias that may distort the assessment of the age-happiness relationship. By causal reasoning we derive a model specification that avoids these biases. For an empirical illustration, we use the longest running panel study with information on happiness, the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2017; N persons=70,922; N person-years =565,703). With these data we demonstrate the relevance of the four biases and how combinations of different biases can reproduce almost any finding from the literature. Most biases tend to produce a spuriously U-shaped age trajectory, the most prominent finding from the literature. In contrast, with our specification we find a (nearly monotonic) declining age-happiness trajectory.

Ort: Online Presentation

08.07.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Jana Friedrichsen

Abstract:   tba

Ort: Online Presentation

01.07.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Markus Pannenberg

Abstract:   tba

Ort: Online Presentation

24.06.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Evi Pappa: "What are the likely macroeconomic effects of the EU Recovery plan"

Abstract:   We examine the dynamic macroeconomic effects of the two largest EU regional structural funds. On average, ERDF funds have significant positive short term consequences on regional macroeconomic variables and gains dissipate almost entirely within three years. ESF funds have negative impact effects on regional variables, but their average cumulative medium term multipliers are positive and economically significant. We detect important regional asymmetries which may induce differential transition paths and outlooks for economic transformation. Location, level of development, EU tenure, Euro area membership and national borders account for part of the asymmetries. We present a two-region equilibrium model with sticky prices and endogenous growth through investment in R&D and human capital that reproduces the facts and explains some of the observed asymmetries. The policy implications for the newly created Recovery fund are discussed.

Ort: Online Presentation

17.06.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Libertad González

Abstract:   We consider a non-cooperative model in which the husband and wife decide on parental leave and the allocation of time between child rearing and the labor market. They can choose the non-cooperative outside option or cooperate by reaching an agreement of specialization, in which the wife specializes in raising kids while the husband works and transfers consumption to his wife. The model shows that "egalitarian" couples (with a sufficiently small gender wage gap) do not specialize and play the outside option, while "traditional" (with a medium gender wage gap) and "very traditional" (with a sufficiently high gender wage gap) couples do have such an agreement. A expansion in paternity leave reduces the net benefits from the agreement and moves traditional couples to their outside option, where women work  more and men do more childcare. As a result, the cost of raising children increases , and  fertility declines. Assuming a loss of utility from children in the case of divorce, lower fertility increases the probability of divorce. Using Spanish data and RDD analysis, we confirm our model’s predictions. Specifically, we find that, among traditional couples, the two-week paternity leave introduced in 2007 resulted in a reduction in fertility by up to 15%, an increase in the probability to divorce by 37%, an increase female employment by up to 7 percentage points, and an increase in father’s childcare time by as much as an hour per day. 

Ort: Online Presentation

10.06.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Jan Pablo Burgard

Abstract:   Spatial dynamic microsimulations allow for the multivariate analysis of complex sys-tems with geographic segmentation. A synthetic replica of the system is stochastically projected into future periods using micro-level transition probabilities. These should accurately represent the dynamics of the system to allow for reliable simulation outcomes. In practice, transition probabilities are unknown and must be estimated from suitable survey data. This can be challenging when the dynamics vary locally. Survey data often lacks in regional detail due to confidentiality restrictions and limited sampling resources. In that case, transition probability estimates may misrepresent regional dynamics due to insufficient local observations and coverage problems. The simulation process subsequently fails to provide an authentic evolution of the system. A constrained maximum likelihood approach for probability alignment to solve these issues is proposed. It accounts for regional heterogeneity in transition dynamics through the consideration of external benchmarks from administrative records. It is proven that the method is consistent. A parametric bootstrap for uncertainty estimation is presented. Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the approach with an existing method for probability alignment. Furthermore, an empirical application to labor force estimation based on the German Microcensus is provided.

Ort: Online Presentation

03.06.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Rory McGee: "Old Age Savings and House Price Shocks"

Abstract:   Elderly households hold most of their wealth in housing, maintain high levels of wealth throughout their retirement, and often leave bequests. The value of their houses are subject to potentially large shocks that can affect their financial circumstances in retirement. To what extent do these shocks affect their savings, consumption, and bequests? Answering this question requires separating precautionary savings, bequest motives, and the desire to remain in one's home. I develop and estimate a structural model of retirement savings decisions with realistic risks, housing, and heterogeneity in bequest preferences. I exploit exogenous policy changes to the taxation of housing and bequests, subjective bequest probabilities and rich longitudinal data on wealth composition to separately identify the different motives for holding wealth and spending in retirement. Estimated bequest motives differ across the households and roughly half of the sample has no bequest motive. House price changes are quantitatively important and a large fraction of increases are passed on to future generations. I use the estimated model to evaluate the current structure of disregard eligibility for (Medicaid-like) programs that insure retirees. I find that for every pound it costs the government, increasing the disregards for liquid assets provides more insurance value than increasing the disregards for houses.

Ort: Online Presentation

27.05.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Bernd Fitzenberger: "The role of unemployment and job change when estimating the returns to migration"

Abstract:   Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, we focus on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and employment during the last few months before migration. We find sizeable positive earnings and employment gains of migration both in comparison to staying or job change. The gains vary considerably with pre-migration earnings and with the counterfactual considered. Future migrants have worse expectations for their labor market prospects in the East and migrants show a greater openness to mobility.

Ort: Online Presentation

20.05.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics, Arnaud Chevalier: "Asian Gold: Expected Returns to Crime and Thieves Behaviour"

Abstract:   Where are crimes committed? We explore how variations in the expected returns to crime affects the location of burglaries in the UK. Our identify- cation strategy relies on the common perception in the UK that families of South Asian descent store a substantial amount of gold jewellery. Move- ments on the international market for gold affect the expected gains from targeting these households, and consequently the location of burglaries. Us- ing a neighbourhood level panel on reported crime, we find that when the price of gold increases, neighbourhoods with a larger share of South Asian households face a disproportionate increase in property crime relative to other neighbourhoods in the same local authority. We conduct a battery of tests to eliminate alternative explanations.

Ort: Online Presentation

06.05.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics Klaus Zimmermann: "Social Assimilation and Labor Market Outcomes of Migrants in China"

Abstract: Previous research has found identity to be relevant for international migration, but has neglected internal mobility as in the case of the Great Chinese Migration. However, the context of the identities of migrants and their adaption in the migration process is likely to be quite different. The gap is closed by examining social assimilation and the effect on the labourmarket outcomes of migrants in China, the country with the largest record of internal mobility. Using instrumental variable estimation, the study finds that identifying as local residents significantly increase migrants’ hourly wages and reduce hours worked, although their monthly earnings remained barely changed. Further findings suggest that migrants with strong local identity are more likely to use local networks in job search, and to obtain jobs with higher average wages and lower average hours worked per day.

Ort: Online presentation

29.04.2021 | 12:15 - 13:30

Research Seminar in Economics Malte Sandner: "Prenatal and Infancy Home Visiting in Germany: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial on Child and Maternal Outcomes at Child Age 7"

Abstract: This study exploits a randomized controlled trial to investigate the effects of a German home visiting program (Pro Kind) for disadvantaged families on child and maternal outcomes at child’s age 7. The intervention started during pregnancy and continued until the second birthday. We present results five years after the end of the home visits. We use data from telephone interviews, on-site interviews, and developmental tests to assess children’s and mothers’ mental health, life satisfaction, cognitive and social development, parenting behavior, signs of child abuse or neglect, and the family’s socio-economic status. Furthermore, we access administrative data to obtain information regarding the mother’s and child’s usage of health care services, and mother’s welfare usage and employment history. We find that Pro Kind has several positive effects on reported child behavior. For mothers, Pro Kind reduces violent parenting and increases mental health. Additionally, mothers in the treatment group have more second births and are less months employed than in the control group indicating that mother in the treatment group focus more on their family life. Overall, the results suggest that the Pro Kind intervention has long lasting effects and changed the life of the participating families sustainable in many domains.

Ort: Online presentation

16.02.2021 | 16:15 - 17:30

Research Seminar in Economics Jochem de Bresser: "Preferences for income redistribution: a new survey instrument and experimental evidence"

Abstract :  This paper proposes a new survey instrument to measure preferences for income redistribution. Starting from the status quo, respondents construct their preferred distribution of after-tax income by changing the tax rates of the bottom four income quintiles. Taxes for the top quintile update automatically to keep the size of the govern-ment budget fixed and incorporate realistic adjustment of taxable income (e.g. changes in labor supply or tax evasion). The new measure is quantitative, comparable across individuals and focuses on redistribution without simultaneous changes in social insur-ance or the size of the government. Moreover, it connects outcomes with the policy tools available to affect them and engages respondents by dynamically updating the income distribution both graphically and numerically. Data are collected in the LISS panel, a large scientific panel that is representative for the Dutch population. The results indicate that the status quo is optimal for about half of the sample and that the other half would prefer a more equal distribution. Only 5% opt for more inequality, but not beyond a flat-tax. Two information treatments inform respondents about the efficiency costs of redistribution, updated dynamically, and the most important income sources across income groups. The latter prompts respondents to stick to the status quo rather than increase equality, while efficiency costs lead to smaller deviations without changing their incidence.

Ort: Online presentation

09.02.2021 | 16:15 - 17:30

Research Seminar in Economics Arthur Seibold: "Privatizing Disability Insurance"

Abstract :  In light of rising expenditure, many social insurance programs face pressure to cut back their generosity to remain sustainable. Such reforms are often accompanied by the idea that individuals can obtain private insurance. In this project, we investigate how the private disability insurance (DI) market responds to a large change in public DI in Germany. Using a combination of administrative data on public DI claims and data from a large private insurance provider, we analyze the reform of 2001, which abolished a type of public DI for younger birth cohorts. We document that the private DI market multiplies in size after the reform. Results from a difference-in-difference strategy suggest a significant causal effect on private DI coverage among affected individuals. Yet, the estimated post-reform coverage rate remains modest. Moreover, we find that the share of privately insured individuals is lower among those with higher occupational disability risk and with lower income.

Ort: Online presentation

02.02.2021 | 16:15 - 17:30

Research Seminar in Economics Phoebe Ishak: "The Effect of Natural Resource Income Shocks on Human Capital: Theory-Inspired Evidence"

Abstract: We explore the effects of persistent income shocks on human capital using oil price fluctuations in a large sample of relevant African countries and employing micro data from multiple waves of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).  Theoretically, such shocks enable human capital investment via the standard income effect; but also crowd it out because of substitutability between natural resource and human capital income sources – so the net outcome can go either way.  Our model also suggests that the relative strength of the two effects depends on the age at which the shock is experienced and the affected gender.  Consistent with these insights, we find that income shocks in early life enhance educational attainment and other derived outcomes; but reduce them if experienced in adolescence, especially for females.  These results survive multiple robustness checks, and their broader implications are discussed.

Ort: Online presentation

26.01.2021 | 16:15 - 17:30

Research Seminar in Economics Tim Lohse: "Pecunia non olet - On the self-selection into (dis)honest earning opportunities"

We study self-selection into earning money in an honest or dishonest fashion based on individuals. attitudes toward truthful reporting. We propose a decision-theoretic framework where individuals willingness to pay for honest earnings is determined by their (behavioral) lying costs. Our laboratory experiment identifies lying costs as the decisive factor causing self-selection into honest earning opportunities for individuals with high costs and into cheating opportunities for those prepared to misreport. Our experimental setup allowsus to recover individual lying costs and their distribution in the population.

Ort: Online presentation

12.01.2021 | 16:15 - 17:30

Research Seminar in Economics Regina Riphahn: "Long-run effects of wage subsidies on maternal labor market outcomes"

We use rich and precise administrative data to study the causal effect of subsidized employment on first time mothers' labor market outcomes up to 8 years after the birth. We apply propensity score matching combined with an event study design to determine the causal effects of taking up a subsidized Minijob after a first birth. We compare this employment choice to similar but unsubsidized, i.e., regular employment. Our results indicate that mothers who take up Minijob employment after a first birth are significantly less likely to be regularly employed and earn significantly lower wages even 8 years after the birth. The high rate of Minijob employment among first time mothers after the birth drives a substantial share of the child penalty of German mothers.

Ort: Online

08.12.2020 | 16:15 - 17:30

Research Seminar in Economics Ulrich Rendtel: "Misst der Berliner Mietspiegel die ortsübliche Vergleichsmiete? Ein Vergleich mit dem Mikrozensus 2018"

Mit dem Wohnmodul des Mikrozensus 2018 ist es erstmals möglich, Wohnungsmieten lokal auf einen 100m x 100m Gitter zu analysieren. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit, die Wohnlagen des Berliner Mietspiegels im Mikrozensus abzubilden. Da auch weitere Bestimmungsgrößen des Mietspiegels zur Verfügung stehen, können Vergleiche mit dem Berliner Tabellenmietspiegel 2019 durchgeführt werden. Der Vortrag geht der Frage nach, ob die sehr hohen Nonresponse-Raten bei der Erhebung des Berliner Mietspiegels eventuell zu einer Verzerrung der Messung der ortsüblichen Vergleichsmiete geführt haben. Hier ist Mikrozensus mit Teilnahmepflicht eindeutig im Vorteil. Weiterhin wird ein alternativer Regressionsmietspiegel für Berlin präsentiert, der neben den Wohnlagen des Mietspiegels auch Postleitzahlgebiete berücksichtigt. Die Analyse berücksichtigt zwei Auswahlebenen: Einmal die Auswahl der neuen Mietverhältnisse der letzten vier Jahre sowie die Berücksichtigung aller Mietverhältnisse. Die Vergleichsmiete des Mietspiegels, die neben den Neuvermietungen auch Haushalte mit Mietanpassungen in den letzten 4 Jahren berücksichtigt, sollte zwischen diesen Mikrozensus-Werten liegen. Der Regressionsmietspiegel weist auf bedeutende regionale Unterschiede im Berliner Mietniveau hin. Weiterhin kann die Entwicklung der Mietspreise in Berlin und deren sich beschleunigender Anstieg eindrucksvoll dargestellt werden.

Ort: Online presentation (German)

01.12.2020 | 16:15 - 17:30