January 30, 2025: Klaus Zimmermann (Global Labor Organization & Freie Universität Berlin)
The Economics of Fertility Revisited
With Klaus Zimmermann (Global Labor Organization & Freie Universität Berlin)
Fertility decline is a matter of concern in numerous countries globally, superseding debates about the population explosion that has dominated recent historical discourse. Germany has experienced a sustained decline since the 1870s with three temporary upswings, with the most recent baby-boom in the early 1960s. By 2100, most countries worldwide are projected to exhibit diminishing populations.
What are the causal factors? Economists typically analyze this issue within the framework of the demographic transition approach, Gary Becker‘s quantity-quality model, and Dick Easterlin‘s hypothesis regarding preference formation and aspirations developed during childhood.
Are these theories obsolete, and can we anticipate a new regime of increasing fertility manifested in an inverse J-curve? Will we observe a regime shift in which the fertility-development curve no longer slopes negatively? The presentation will cast doubt on the likelihood of observing more than fluctuating fertility rates around a level below the net reproduction rate in the foreseeable future.