Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft

In-group favoritism in grant evaluation processes

with Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln

We study in-group favoritism in the evaluation of grant proposals, focusing on gender and nationality in the European Research Council (ERC) funding process. Using data on over 37,000 proposals and the structure of ERC reviews, we find that individual reviewers tend to give higher scores to applicants who share their nationality or gender. Nationality-based favoritism is particularly strong while gender-based favoritism is smaller but still significant. These patterns persist after accounting for reviewer characteristics and proposal-reviewer topic match. At the level of final panel decisions—where reviewer scores are aggregated and discussed—we find weaker and more mixed evidence of in-group favoritism, with some persistence of nationality bias but little effect for gender.

Image preferences as a driver of polarization

with Kjell Arne Brekke

We show how the preference to be highly regarded by others as well as oneself can drive polarization. Changed normative views may affect individuals’ image, depending on their characteristics: for example, while single mothers or LGBTQ people may be viewed more favorably by liberals than conservatives, the reverse may hold for the wealthy or preachers. While normative views are fixed convictions in the short run, we assume that they are adopted from peers over time; adoption is more reluctant, however, for views decreasing one’s utility. Over time, migration between peer groups is feasible. In the steady state, everyone in a given peer group shares an extreme normative view, which one depending on group members’ characteristics. The only exception is groups where no-one’s image is affected by changed normative views: if such groups exist, their members may share intermediate positions. We show that if views are partly learnt across and not just within peer groups, equilibrium polarization is less extreme. If image can be improved through effort, the steady state involves minimal optimal efforts.

Central Bank Communication: The Economics of Monetary Policy Leaks

with Phillipp Gnan and Kilian Rieder

We exploit high frequency financial market reactions to conduct the first systematic empirical study on leaks of confidential information emanating from central banks. Based on a novel database of anonymous monetary policy leaks reported by the media, we provide evidence that many of these leaks are likely not accidents, but placed strategically by insiders. We find that leaks have large effects on markets relative to standard monetary surprises, often exceeding the impact of attributed statements by policy-makers. Mainly reflecting minority opinions, leaks do not usually lock-in decision-making, but they weaken the transmission of official policy announcements.

Thinking versus Doing: Cognitive Capacity, Decision Making and Medical Diagnosis

with tba.

We study impact of situational factors on decision making of physicians. Using detailed audit log data from emergency rooms, we access how cognitive load during the shift affects future choices of tests as well as the treatment. We draw upon theories of information acquisition to infer how much is physicians' knowledge refined when making a particular choice. For instance, we find that high cognitive load implies that physicians make less informed choices in the future, perhaps choose to think less, and instead substitute this with more orders of diagnostic tests.

Vietnam’s Industrial Automation: Drivers and Impacts on the Labor Market

with Omar Arias (World Bank), Daisuke Fukuzawa (World Bank) and Duong Trun Le (World Bank)

Robot adoption has rapidly increased in Vietnam, especially after 2017. This period has seen accelerated integration of Vietnam into global trade (through participation in FTAs) and through capturing trade-diversion stemming from the U.S.-China decoupling. The period also coincides with accelerated growth in the number of foreign owned companies (FOEs) and investment, such as industrial robots, with foreign manufacturers dominating the export landscape in the country. Investment by FOEs has been particularly strong in special economic zones (SEZs). Robot adoption concentrates in computer and electronics and electrical equipment industries, which are the most export-oriented and dominated by FOEs. We find that displacement effects of robotization has been relatively small, while the informal sector absorbed a significant fraction of the low-skilled displaced workers. We also find that robot adoption has had positive effects on wages, particularly for high-skilled and service workers. Importantly, districts more exposed to growing robot adoption also exhibit relative generalized employment gains and population growth, partly explained by a greater reception of migrants. Our findings point to complementarities between trade integration, industrial policy and foreign investment in promoting job creation and affecting population dynamics.

The (Ir)Relevance of Institutional Proliferation: Evidence from Foreigners’ Advisory Councils

We study whether foreigners’ advisory councils (FACs, Ausländerbeiräte) improve the integration (success) of foreign residents in German municipalities. FACs consist of representatives elected by foreign residents and are supposed to advise local councils on all matters concerning foreign residents. We use exclusive data on FAC elections in the German state of Hesse for 2005-2023. Municipalities with at least 1,000 foreign residents are required to set up a foreigners’ advisory council. Given imperfect compliance, we implement fuzzy RD estimations and find that FACs have no impact on integration-relevant municipal outcomes such as integration courses offered, the share of foreigners employed or naturalizations. Analyzing local council minutes, FACs are mainly mentioned in the context of administrative tasks and do not seem to affect the content of council deliberations.

Occupational Choices, Human Capital and Cross-Country Income Differences

with Charles Gottlieb and Jan Grobovsek

We revisit the role of human capital in explaining the cross-country variation in GDP.
We propose a general-equilibrium accounting model in which workers of different human capital groups (education and experience) sort across broad occupational categories. The occupational assignment is determined by the comparative advantage of workers as well as occupational productivity, human-capital quality, and occupational distortions. We map the model to a unique harmonized micro dataset that allows to measure average wages by human capital and occupation for 50 countries that span the entire development spectrum. The calibration reveals that rich countries have particularly high productivity in more complex, white-collar occupations. They also have higher human-capital quality. The composition and quality of human capital explain half of the cross-country non-agricultural GDP perworker gap relative to the US. For the poorest quintile of countries, a shift to US human capital would double non-agricultural GDP and the white-collar employment rate while decreasing the wage of white-collar relative to blue-collar workers by 30 percent. We also find that occupational distortions are more pronounced in poor countries. They depress white-collar employment and contribute to a high white-collar wage premium, yet have a modest quantitative effect on aggregate output.

From Print to Pixels: The Effect of E-Content on Libraries, Patrons, and Student Learning

with Lisa Hanzl

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the widespread adoption of electronic resources, online educational platforms, and video communication in educational settings. While causal research on the impact of online educational resources on the education production function and student achievement continues to progress, significant gaps remain.
This study focuses on technological change in electronic information content, specifically the large-scale adoption of eBooks and audiobooks in public libraries. We examine the substantial, one-time purchases made by public libraries to expand access to electronic resources. In the early 2010s, nearly all libraries acquired subscriptions to proprietary electronic content, with eBooks and audiobooks emerging as the dominant electronic resources.
Using an event study framework, we analyze how public libraries and patrons adapted to these large-scale shifts in electronic resources. By tracking patterns of use over time, we aim to provide insights into how these investments influenced library services, patron behavior, and, importantly, child literacy outcomes. As digital resources became more accessible, their impact on early reading habits, engagement with library materials, and broader literacy development remains an open question. Our study centers on the 2010s, a period characterized by the widespread adoption of audiobooks and eBooks.
To conduct this research, we utilize a comprehensive dataset covering the universe of U.S. public library systems over a 15-year period. This dataset includes detailed information on library collections, personnel, hours of operation, and other key operational metrics. Additionally, it provides insights into patron engagement, including circulation of printed materials, library visits, and other in-person usage measures. Furthermore, we incorporate child literacy indicators to assess how shifts in electronic resource availability influenced reading engagement and literacy development among young patrons.

Identity and Institutional Change: Evidence from First Names in Germany 1700-1850

with Matthias Weigand and Davide Cantoni

How does culture change in response to major institutional shifts? What is the role of culture in selecting and stabilizing new institutional equilibria in critical junctures? We study the collapse of the Holy Roman Empire (1789–1815), when half of the Central European population changed rulers. Our annual data on 44 million geolocated birth records between 1700 and 1850 provide a real-time measure of identity choices. In cities that changed rulers, the name distribution changed, becoming more dispersed and polarized. Using detailed records on diplomatic negotiations, we construct comparable control groups to isolate these effects, which emerged immediately and persisted over time. Examining mechanisms, we provide evidence suggesting that the transition increased uncertainty and eroded the supply of loyalist identity, creating an identity vacuum that competing stakeholders — religious and nationalist groups — actively filled. These cultural shifts became institutionalized, fostering tensions with the new regimes. Our findings underscore the dual challenge of cultural and administrative integration in state-building after regime transitions.