Program
Please find below our current program of the summer term beginning in April 2025.
The program is constantly updated. Please subscribe to our newsletter to get latest news and information on the seminar sessions.
Image preferences as a driver of polarization
with Kjell Arne Brekke
We show how the preference to be highly regarded by others as well as oneself can drive polarization. Changed normative views may affect individuals’ image, depending on their characteristics: for example, while single mothers or LGBTQ people may be viewed more favorably by liberals than conservatives, the reverse may hold for the wealthy or preachers. While normative views are fixed convictions in the short run, we assume that they are adopted from peers over time; adoption is more reluctant, however, for views decreasing one’s utility. Over time, migration between peer groups is feasible. In the steady state, everyone in a given peer group shares an extreme normative view, which one depending on group members’ characteristics. The only exception is groups where no-one’s image is affected by changed normative views: if such groups exist, their members may share intermediate positions. We show that if views are partly learnt across and not just within peer groups, equilibrium polarization is less extreme. If image can be improved through effort, the steady state involves minimal optimal efforts.
The U.S. Civil War’s Impact on Women’s Work and Political Participation
with Madison Arnsbarger (Weber State University) and Paige Montrose (University of Pittsburgh)
This study examines what role economic factors play in enabling disenfranchised groups to influence policy. To answer this question, we study the aftermath of the U.S. Civil War, which left nearly 350,000 men wounded or disabled, and analyze its effects on the economic and political engagement of women. The most common medicinal solution for pain management at the time was alcohol consumption, resulting in notable increases in domestic violence. The double-burden of having to provide for their families economically, while also enduring domestic abuse incentivized women to participate in the first large-scale, women-led political organization in the U.S., the Women’s Christian Temperance Union. Using linked census data, we show that wives and daughters of disabled veterans were 20% more likely to enter the formal labor force compared to those of uninjured veterans. Instrumental variables regressions, using the assignment of soldiers to the largest battles of the war - which was determined by proximity and military strategy - as instrument for soldiers‘ disability status, we provide evidence that this effect is likely causal. We then show that counties with higher shares of disabled veterans saw increased formation of Women‘s Christian Temperance Union (WCTU) chapters in the following decades—an effect driven largely by women‘s heightened labor force participation. Furthermore, we find that congressional districts with more WCTU chapters were significantly more likely to support federal prohibition, culminating in the passage of the 18th Amendment. These findings reveal a crucial mechanism through which women, despite being denied formal political representation, shaped national policy through economic participation and grassroots activism. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of labor force participation in securing political rights for underrepresented groups.
Central Bank Communication: The Economics of Monetary Policy Leaks
with Phillipp Gnan and Kilian Rieder
We exploit high frequency financial market reactions to conduct the first systematic empirical study on leaks of confidential information emanating from central banks. Based on a novel database of anonymous monetary policy leaks reported by the media, we provide evidence that many of these leaks are likely not accidents, but placed strategically by insiders. We find that leaks have large effects on markets relative to standard monetary surprises, often exceeding the impact of attributed statements by policy-makers. Mainly reflecting minority opinions, leaks do not usually lock-in decision-making, but they weaken the transmission of official policy announcements.
Thinking versus Doing: Cognitive Capacity, Decision Making and Medical Diagnosis
with tba.
We study impact of situational factors on decision making of physicians. Using detailed audit log data from emergency rooms, we access how cognitive load during the shift affects future choices of tests as well as the treatment. We draw upon theories of information acquisition to infer how much is physicians' knowledge refined when making a particular choice. For instance, we find that high cognitive load implies that physicians make less informed choices in the future, perhaps choose to think less, and instead substitute this with more orders of diagnostic tests.
Vietnam’s Industrial Automation: Drivers and Impacts on the Labor Market
with Omar Arias (World Bank), Daisuke Fukuzawa (World Bank) and Duong Trun Le (World Bank)
Robot adoption has rapidly increased in Vietnam, especially after 2017. This period has seen accelerated integration of Vietnam into global trade (through participation in FTAs) and through capturing trade-diversion stemming from the U.S.-China decoupling. The period also coincides with accelerated growth in the number of foreign owned companies (FOEs) and investment, such as industrial robots, with foreign manufacturers dominating the export landscape in the country. Investment by FOEs has been particularly strong in special economic zones (SEZs). Robot adoption concentrates in computer and electronics and electrical equipment industries, which are the most export-oriented and dominated by FOEs. We find that displacement effects of robotization has been relatively small, while the informal sector absorbed a significant fraction of the low-skilled displaced workers. We also find that robot adoption has had positive effects on wages, particularly for high-skilled and service workers. Importantly, districts more exposed to growing robot adoption also exhibit relative generalized employment gains and population growth, partly explained by a greater reception of migrants. Our findings point to complementarities between trade integration, industrial policy and foreign investment in promoting job creation and affecting population dynamics.
From Print to Pixels: The Effect of E-Content on Libraries, Patrons, and Student Learning
with Lisa Hanzl
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the widespread adoption of electronic resources, online educational platforms, and video communication in educational settings. While causal research on the impact of online educational resources on the education production function and student achievement continues to progress, significant gaps remain.
This study focuses on technological change in electronic information content, specifically the large-scale adoption of eBooks and audiobooks in public libraries. We examine the substantial, one-time purchases made by public libraries to expand access to electronic resources. In the early 2010s, nearly all libraries acquired subscriptions to proprietary electronic content, with eBooks and audiobooks emerging as the dominant electronic resources.
Using an event study framework, we analyze how public libraries and patrons adapted to these large-scale shifts in electronic resources. By tracking patterns of use over time, we aim to provide insights into how these investments influenced library services, patron behavior, and, importantly, child literacy outcomes. As digital resources became more accessible, their impact on early reading habits, engagement with library materials, and broader literacy development remains an open question. Our study centers on the 2010s, a period characterized by the widespread adoption of audiobooks and eBooks.
To conduct this research, we utilize a comprehensive dataset covering the universe of U.S. public library systems over a 15-year period. This dataset includes detailed information on library collections, personnel, hours of operation, and other key operational metrics. Additionally, it provides insights into patron engagement, including circulation of printed materials, library visits, and other in-person usage measures. Furthermore, we incorporate child literacy indicators to assess how shifts in electronic resource availability influenced reading engagement and literacy development among young patrons.