Program
Please find below our current program of the summer term beginning in April 2026.
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Physician prescribing style and the economic cost of health shocks
with Flavia Cavallini (Università della Svizzera italiana), Karin Heck (Nivel, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research), Fabrizio Mazzonna (Università della Svizzera italiana)
Abstract:
We investigate the role of primary care physicians‘ prescribing style in the transmission of health shocks to the labor market. Using administrative data from the Netherlands (2009–2020), we exploit the Dutch gatekeeping system and geographic constraints on GP choice to identify the causal effect of prescribing style on post-hospitalization recovery. We characterize GP style by a composite index of prescribing propensity for benzodiazepines, opioids, antidepressants, and antibiotics. Comparing patients in practices above versus below the median of this distribution, we find that while hospitalization leads to persistent earnings losses for all, the ”economic penalty‘” is 70% steeper for those in high-prescribing practices. Six years post-hospitalization, these patients earn 750 euro less annually, a gap that widens to 1,500 euro for those under 45. We identify persistent, potentially addictive benzodiazepine use as the primary mechanism, finding no systematic differences in mortality or rehospitalization rates that might otherwise explain the observed labor market trajectories.
The Housing Channel of Labor Market Turnover
with Benjamin Born (University of Bonn) and Pascal Frank (University of Notre Dame)
Abstract:
We estimate the dynamic effect of housing turnover on labor market turnover in the United States. Using state-level panel data from 2001 to 2019 and a local projections instrumental variables framework, we exploit high-frequency monetary policy surprises as an exogenous source of variation in housing turnover. A one percentage point decline in housing turnover— comparable in magnitude to one standard deviation—leads to a persistent reduction in labor market turnover of about 0.3 percentage points over three years. The effect is stronger in states with higher homeownership rates, consistent with a mortgage lock-in channel. A decomposition analysis reveals that housing turnover accounts for at least two thirds of the impact transmission from monetary policy to labor market turnover. Results are robust to using an alternative instrument based on global economic activity, alternative measures of both housing and labor market turnover, and a range of further specification checks.
Dynamic Biases of Static Panel Data Estimators
Abstract:
This paper identifies an important bias — termed dynamic bias — in fixed effects panel estimators that arises when dynamic feedback is ignored in the estimating equation. Dynamic feedback occurs if past outcomes impact current outcomes, a feature of many settings ranging from economic growth to labor markets. When estimating equations omit past outcomes, dynamic bias can lead to significantly inaccurate treatment effect estimates, even with randomly assigned treatments. I show that dynamic bias stems from the estimation of fixed effects, as their estimation generates confounding in the data. This dynamic bias in simulations is an order of magnitude larger than Nickell bias. To recover consistent treatment effects, I develop a flexible estimator that provides fixed-T bias correction. I apply this approach to study the impact of temperature shocks on GDP, a canonical example where economic theory points to an important feedback from past to future outcomes. Accounting for dynamic bias lowers the estimated effects of higher annual temperatures on GDP growth by 10% and GDP levels by 120%.