Teacher: Céline Poilly (Aix-Marseille School of Economics and CEPR)

Aim of the course

Over the last years, uncertainty has become a major challenge that private and public decision makers have to deal with. This course will give an overview of the recent developments in the macroeconomics of uncertainty.

We will first review the different empirical measures of economic uncertainty and examine its effects on macroeconomic outcomes. We will be particularly interested in the link between uncertainty and economic volatility. Then, we will discuss the theoretical mechanisms through which uncertainty affects individual decisions (precautionary behaviors, risk aversion, etc.) and the amplication mechanisms of uncertainty shocks through business cycle models.

By the end of the course, students are expected to (i) have a good knowledge about the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomics volatility shock, (ii) being able to conduct an independent research using empirical and theoretical models of macroeconomic volatility.

This course is at advanced M.Sc. and Ph.D. level.

Assessment

Students will present a research idea in class during the second block of the course that they will develop into a 4-5 page research proposal. Ph.D students are also expected to present a paper in class.

Schedule

Thursday	07.05.2026	12.15-15.45
Friday	08.05.2026	12.15-15.45
Monday	11.05.2026	14.15-17.45
Tuesday	12.05.2026	08.30-11.45
Wednesday	13.05.2026	08.30-11.45
Monday	18.05.2026	14.15-17.45
Tuesday	19.05.2026	08.30-11.45
Wednesday	20.05.2026	08.30-11.45

• Syllabus and Literature