Vorträge & Termine
Research Seminar in Economics, Kirstin Hubrich
Kirstin Hubrich The transmission of financial shocks and the leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework We conduct a novel empirical analysis of the role of leverage of financial institutions for the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. For that purpose we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that depend on the state of the economy. We propose new identification techniques for regime switching models. Recently developed theoretical models emphasize the role of bank balance sheets for the build-up of financial instabilities and the amplification of financial shocks. We build a market-based measure of leverage of financial institutions employing institution-level data and find empirical evidence that real effects of financial shocks are amplified by the leverage of financial institutions in the financial-constraint regime. We also find evidence of heterogeneity in how financial institutions, including depository financial institutions, global systemically important banks and selected nonbank financial institutions, affect the transmission of shocks to the macroeconomy. Our results confirm the leverage ratio as a useful indicator from a policy perspective.
Gastvortrag Stephan Elsner: Customer Relationship Management im Versandhandel
Stephan Elsner (Geschäftsführung Baur Versand) hält einen Gastvortrag mit anschließender Diskussion zum Thema „Customer Relationship Management im Versandhandel“.
Ort: Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Hörsaal 103, Garystraße 21, 14195 Berlin-Dahlem
Gastvortrag: Entwicklungen in der Nachhaltigkeitsberichterstattung: Normative Anforderungen und Herausforderungen in der Praxis
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hs 108
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Research Seminar in Economics, Holger Gerhardt
Holger Gerhardt Topic: To be announced.
Disputationsankündigung Frau Anna Katharina Gehring, M. Sc.
Ort: AS-Saal, HFB
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Online via Webex
How to Select Targets for Investigations? Evidence from Financial Reporting Enforcement
Ort: FACTS Department Thielallee 73, 14195 Berlin Raum 013
Disputationsankündigung Herr Christoph Halbmeier, M.Sc.
Ort: Seminarraum 013, Thielallee 73
Gastvortrag: Moderne Investor Relations – Mehr als nur eine Kommunikationsdisziplin
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hs 108
Disputationsankündigung Herr Max Conrad Diegel, M.Sc.
Ort: Konferenzraum II, HFB
Research Seminar in Economics, Guntram Wolff
Guntram Wolff Green Investments, Decarbonisation and Public Finance
Energieeffizienz an der FU Berlin- Ausschreibung FUturist für mehr Klimaschutz und Nachhaltigkeit
Ort: Weiterbildungszentrum (detaillierte Angaben erhalten Sie mit der Kurszusage).
Research Seminar in Economics, Christoph Trebesch
Christoph Trebesch Populist Leaders and the Economy Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new cross-country database identifying 50 populist presidents and prime ministers 1900-2018. We find that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is more than 10% lower compared to a plausible non-populist counterfactual. Rising economic nationalism and protectionism, unsustainable macroeconomic policies, and institutional decay under populist rule do lasting damage to the economy.
A Network Approach to Compliance: A Complexity Science Understanding of How Rules Shape Behavior
Ort: FACTS Department Thielallee 73, 14195 Berlin Raum 013
Research Seminar in Economics, Guido Neidhöfer
Guido Neidhöfer Topic: To be announced
Gastvortrag: Auswirkungen des Ukraine-Kriegs auf die rechnungslegungsorientierte Bewertung nach IFRS
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hs 107
Research Seminar in Economics, Melanie Krause
Melanie Krause Headwind or Tailwind at the Ballot Box? The Local Effect of Wind Turbines on Green Party Support
Gastvortrag: Business Combinations: Common Pitfalls
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hs 107
Research Seminar in Economics, Christian Keuschnigg
Christian Keuschnigg Resource Dependence and Recycling
Research Seminar in Economics, Katja Kaufmann
Katja Kaufmann Spillover Effects of Old-Age Pension Across Generations: Family Labor Supply and Child Outcomes
Gastvortrag Prof. Daniel Beverungen: Public Data Spaces
Gastvortrag Prof. Daniel Beverungen (Universität Paderborn) hält einen Vortrag mit dem Titel: FROM PRIVATE PLATFORMS TO PUBLIC DATA SPACES
Ort: Freie Universität Berlin, Henry-Ford-Bau, Hörsaal D, Garystraße 35, 14195 Berlin-Dahlem
Hello Diversity! Live Podcast Recording with Prof. Maura McAdam and Emilia Theye at Einstein Center Digital Future
Ort: Einstein Center Digital Future Wilhelmstrasse 67
Research Seminar in Economics, Silke Übelmesser
Silke Übelmesser Pension Reform Preferences in Germany: Does Information Matter? Demographic change has an impact on pay-as-you-go pension systems. To maintain their financial sustainability, reforms are necessary, but often lack public support. Based on representative survey data from Germany, we conduct a survey experiment which allows investigating whether salience of or information about demographic change enhances preferences towards reforms in general as well as towards specific reform measures. We find that salience and information provision significantly increase the perceived reform necessity. Furthermore, salience increases preferences for an increase of the retirement age over other reform measures, while information provision reduces preferences for tax subsidies. In addition, we highlight the impact of prior beliefs and find that overestimation of demographic change in the short term reduces the treatment effects, while overestimation in the long term increases it. As the salience and the information treatments barely differ, we conclude that it is not the information about the demographic change, but rather being made aware of the challenges of the pension system, which matters for reform preferences.
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Online via Webex
Research Seminar in Economics, Manuel Santos de Silva
Manuel Santos Silva Right-wing populism in the tropics: Economic crisis, the political gender gap, and the election of Bolsonaro This paper investigates whether differential exposure to a labor market shock by gender contributed to the rise of far-right populism in Brazil. Using a shift-share approach, we find that gender heterogeneity in shock exposure predicts electoral outcomes. Male-specific labor demand shocks increase support for Bolsonaro in the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, but female-specific shocks have the reverse effect. Additional results suggest that these opposing effects are accompanied by an unprecedented shift in social values of men and women, with men becoming relatively more conservative. Our preferred interpretation is that Bolsonaro's conservative rhetoric---shared by several other right-wing politicians---is more appealing to men once they experience a relative loss in economic status, which is consistent both with the positive male effect as well as the negative female effect.
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Research Seminar in Economics, Axel Ockenfels
Axel Ockenfels Behavioral Market Design Human behavior shapes almost all aspects of our lives. It influences the success of societies, markets, organizations, and individuals. Indeed, many economic and social challenges, such as pandemics, climate change, traffic congestion and energy scarcity, require behavioral change. In this talk, I use case studies to show how research in market design and behavioral economics can be used to develop mechanisms that align incentives and behavior with the underlying goals.
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Einführung WRDS
Ort: Online via Zoom
Research Seminar in Economics, Christian Basteck
Christian Basteck Strategy-Proof and Envy-Free Random Assignments We study the random assignment of indivisible objects among a set of agents with strict preferences. We show that there exists no mechanism which is unanimous, strategy-proof and envy-free. Weakening the first requirement to q-unanimity – i.e., when every agent ranks a different object at the top, then each agent shall receive his most-preferred object with probability of at least q – we show that a mechanism satisfying strategy-proofness, envy-freeness and ex-post weak non-wastefulness can be q-unanimous only for q ≤ 2/n (where n is the number of agents). To demonstrate that this bound is tight, we introduce a new mechanism, Random-Dictatorship-cum-Equal-Division (RDcED), and show that it achieves this maximal bound when all objects are acceptable. In addition, for three agents, RDcED is characterized by the first three properties and ex-post weak efficiency. If objects may be unacceptable, strategy-proofness and envy-freeness are jointly incompatible even with ex-post weak non-wastefulness.
Einführung Eikon
Ort: Online via MS Teams
Research Seminar in Economics, Christoph Grosse-Steffen
Christoph Grosse Steffen Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: Do Inflation Target Formulations Matter? Inflation target formulations differ across countries and over time. Most widespread are point targets, target ranges, hybrid combinations of the two, or mere definitions of price stability. This paper proposes a novel empirical measure of expectations anchoring based on the cross-sectional distribution of private sector inflation point forecasts. Applying this to a panel of 29 countries, it finds three main results. First, a numerical target definition per se does not improve anchoring compared to a definition of price stability, while the formulation of a numerical reference point increases the degree of anchoring. Second, point targets and hybrid target formulations are associated with better anchoring than target ranges. Third, periods of persistent target deviations lead to an increase in tail risks to the inflation outlook. Conditional on such periods, point targets and hybrid targets attenuate tail risks to the inflation outlook, with a stronger quantitative effect for point targets. The results are consistent with models suggesting that targets ranges are interpreted as zones where monetary policy is less active
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Seminarraum 315
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Seminarraum 315
Einführung WRDS
Ort: Online via Zoom
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: Hörsaal 108a
Einführung Eikon
Ort: Online via MS Teams
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: HS 108a
Bibliotheksführung
Ort: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Bibliothek
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: Hörsaal 108a
Bibliotheksführung
Ort: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Bibliothek
Research Seminar in Economics, Ben Greiner
Ben Greiner Social and economic preferences towards the end of life For various strategic, psychological, and cognitive reasons, social and economic behavior may change as people approach high age and the end of life. Using large-scale in-person and online surveys with embedded experiments, we study how individual and social decision-making varies with age and subjective life expectancy. I'll present preliminary results on trust and trustworthiness, altruistic giving, risk preferences, and in particular time preferences.
Bibliotheksführung
Ort: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Bibliothek
Bibliotheksführung
Ort: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Bibliothek
Bibliotheksführung
Ort: Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Bibliothek
Einführungsveranstaltung für die neue M&M-Kohorte
Wir freuen uns darauf auch in diesem Jahr die neuen Studierenden im Masterstudiengang "Management & Marketing" in einer Einführungsveranstaltung begrüßen zu dürfen.
Ort: Henry-Ford-Bau, Hörsaal D
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Seminarraum 315
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Seminarraum 315
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: Seminarraum 315
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Online via Webex
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Online via Webex
Gastvortrag von Dr. Zucker Marques: Crytocurrencies and Development
Gastvortrag von Dr. Marina Zucker Marques (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin, Rüdesheimer Str. 54-56, 14197 Berlin, Raum 201
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Online via Webex
Gastvortrag von Prof. Laike Yang: Global Value Chain and China-US Trade
Gastvortrag von Prof. Dr. Laike Yang (East China Normal University, Shanghai)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin Online-Vortrag (siehe unten weitere Informationen)
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Gastvortrag von PD. Dr. Frederik Schulze: Erdöl, Staudammbau und Entwicklungspolitik in Venezuela in den 1960er Jahren
Gastvortrag von PD. Dr. Frederik Schulze (Universität Bielefeld)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin, Rüdesheimer Str. 54-56, 14197 Berlin, Raum 201
Gastvortrag von Prof. Blofield: Gender relations and family structure: Social changes and policy responses in Latin America
Gastvortrag von Prof. Merike Blofield (German Institute for Global and Area Studies)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin, Rüdesheimer Str. 54-56, 14197 Berlin, Raum 201
Gastvortrag Prof. Dr. Steffen Augsberg: „Datensouveränität – Grundanliegen und Herausforderungen“
Ort: Henry-Ford-Bau (Hörsaal A).
M&M l inFU-Lunch 2022
Ort: online https://fu-berlin.webex.com/fu-berlin/j.php?MTID=mb68d74d5c0ef638e0c8076d97e2c9fc0
Webinar No-one left behind? The shortcomings of the Global Financial Safety Net for low and middle-income countries during COVID-19
Webinar organized by UNCTAD, in collaboration with the Boston University and the Freie Universität Berlin The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the economic, financial and debt vulnerabilities of low-income and middle-income developing countries (LICs and MICs), leaving their economies ravaged and floundering, and potentially undoing the progress made toward sustainable development and the achievement of the 2030 Agenda. The UNCTAD-led project Response and Recovery: Mobilising Financial Resources for development in the time of COVID-19, in cooperation with ECA, ECLAC and ESCAP, aims to strengthen macroeconomic diagnostic and policy design capacity in LICs and MICs to respond appropriately and innovatively to the COVID-19 pandemic and to contribute to a recovery that enables the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The project includes the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) tracker created in joint collaboration between UNCTAD, Boston University and Freie Universität Berlin. The GFSN tracker provided a regular tracking of key GFSN components including Regional Financial Agreement (RFAs), IMF lending and bilateral currency swaps between central banks. The GFSN tracker is part of an evaluation of whether the financial options of the International Monetary system can deliver what is needed to member states in terms of potential access to short-term liquidity in foreign currencies. This evaluation is especially important for MICs and LICs which do not have the same access to finance and policy crisis response options as High-Income Countries (HICs). Purpose and objectives of the webinar The webinar forms part of the activities of the Response and Recovery: Mobilising Financial Resources for development in the time of COVID-19 project. The webinar provides an opportunity to showcase the GFSN tracker with emphasis on the relative importance of the different liquidity options and the income-group profile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The workshop brings together experts on the GFSN, representatives of member countries, policymakers and central bankers from beneficiary countries The key objectives and expected outcomes of the event are the following: To create an open dialogue in which member States can gain awareness about the structural inequalities in the provision of crisis finance through the GFSN To provide a better understanding of the global liquidity options to developing countries, including their conditionalities and accessibility to different countries and regions To explore ways to leverage the comparative strengths of each GFSN element through coordination to safeguard better access of LICs and MICs to the GFSN.
Ort: Online-event
M&M l Master Session
Ort: online https://fu-berlin.webex.com/fu-berlin/j.php?MTID=m7d54c5c6feffbe423059a7d631dd0fe8
M&M l inFU-Lunch 2022
Ort: online https://fu-berlin.webex.com/fu-berlin/j.php?MTID=maae56bc656ecc62eea9a53528b059ff7
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: Hörsaal 108a
M&M l inFU-Lunch 2022
Ort: online https://fu-berlin.webex.com/fu-berlin/j.php?MTID=mdceb207453c3b4c49ad151fb3a8748c2
Einführung Literaturverwaltung mit EndNote
Ort: Online via Webex
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Kurs Richtig Zitieren
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Research Seminar in Economics, Jan Marcus
Abstract: We use school entry cut-off rules to study the effects of schooling on mortality in Germany. Based on the 1970 Census and the full Cause-of-Death Statistics for Germany, we exploit information on the exact date of birth within a regression discontinuity framework. Individuals born just after the school entry cut-off are older when they enter school, and they are three percentage points more likely to earn a higher secondary school leaving certificate. In later life, those individuals born after the school entry cut-off are significantly less likely to die before age 70. Studying the causes of death, we find that the reduced mortality risk is mainly driven by fewer deaths associated with unhealthy behaviours over the life course. Jan Marcus is an Assistant Professor for Econometrics at University Hamburg. His research focuses on causal analysis, economics of education, health economics, and policy evaluation.
Gastvortrag von Prof. Martínez Franzoni: Pandemic and Social Policies in Latin America
Guest lecture by Prof. Juliana Martínez Franzoni (University of Costa Rica)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut Online-event via Cisco WebEx
Gastvortrag von Dr. Mühlich: Zahlungsbilanzfinanzierung in der COVID 19-Krise und das globale finanzielle Sicherheitsnetz
Gastvortrag von Dr. Laurissa Mühlich (University of Boston)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut Online-event via Cisco WebEx
Gastvortrag: Grundlagen und neuere Entwicklungen bei Impairment Tests nach IFRS
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hörsaal 107
M&M l Auslandsinformationsveranstaltung 2022
Ort: online
Research Seminar in Economics, Paul Frijters
Wellbeing and Religious Behaviour During and After Natural Disasters Abstract: As the severity and frequency of natural disasters become more pronounced with climate change and the increased habitation of at-risk areas, it is important to understand how people react to them. This presentation combines two papers on that general topic. We look at natural disasters in the US in a sample of 2.2 million observations, allowing for individual- and county-level factors. The event-study design contrasts changes in outcomes in counties affected by disasters with that of residents in unaffected counties of the same state. In the first paper we look at psychological resilience during and after disasters, measured by changes in hedonic wellbeing. We find that people’s hedonic wellbeing is reduced by approximately 6% of a standard deviation in the first two weeks following the event, with the effect diminishing rapidly thereafter. The negative effects are driven by White, older, and economically advantaged sub-populations, who exhibit less resilience. We find no evidence that existing indices of community resilience moderate impacts. In the second paper we look at religious observances during natural disasters and afterwards. We find that individuals reduce the time spent on prayer during disasters and then rapidly return to baseline, with no indication of sustained changes.
Vortrag im Rahmen der Forschungswerkstatt von Herr Prof. Sascha Raithel (FU Berlin)
Ort: Digital, via Webex-Meeting
Gastvortrag: Moderne Investor Relations
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hörsaal 103
Gastvortrag: Insights into Enforcement
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hörsaal 107
Research Seminar in Economics, Martin Fochmann
Abstract: Tax perceptions are well-known to determine the economic behavior of individuals. While there is broad evidence on significant tax-related misperceptions, however, little is known on firms’ tax-related misperception. We quantify firms’ tax-related misperception using survey data of 657 German firms. Further, we identify drivers of firms’ tax-related misperception. Our results indicate that firms considerably misperceive their average tax rate (ATR) and marginal tax rate (MTR). Respondents from all kinds of firms such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, and corporations overestimate their ATR, however, corporations to a significantly lower extent. By contrast, our findings on MTRs are inconclusive. Surprisingly, comparing firms’ perception of ATRs with MTRs reveals a missing understanding of basic tax concepts. According to our results, size, legal form, and estimates of tax complexity and tax compliance cost are the main drivers of tax burden misperception.
Research Seminar in Economics, Maja Adena
Abstract: Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected pro-sociality among individuals? After the onset of the pandemic, many charitable appeals were updated to include a reference to COVID-19. Did donors increase their giving in response to such changes? In order to answer these questions, we conducted a real-donation online experiment with more than 4,200 participants from 149 local areas in England and over 21 weeks. First, we varied the fundraising appeal to either include or exclude a reference to COVID-19. We found that including the reference to COVID-19 in the appeal increased donations. Second, in a natural experiment like approach, we studied how the relative local severity of the pandemic and media coverage about local COVID-19 severity affected giving in our experiment. We found that both higher local severity and more related articles increased giving of participants in the respective areas. This holds for different specifications, including specifications with location fixed effects, time fixed effects, a broad set of individual characteristics to account for a potentially changing composition of the sample over time and to account for health- and work-related experiences with and expectations regarding the pandemic. While negative experiences with COVID-19 correlate negatively with giving, both approaches led us to conclude that the pure effect of in creased salience of the pandemic on pro-sociality is positive
Research Seminar in Economics, Tabea Bucher-Koenen
Abstract: Women are less financially literate than men. It is unclear whether this gap reflects a lack of knowledge or, rather, a lack of confidence. Our survey experiment shows that women tend to disproportionately respond “do not know” to questions measuring financial knowledge, but when this response option is unavailable, they often choose the correct answer. We estimate a latent class model and predict the probability that respondents truly know the correct answers. We find that about one-third of the financial literacy gender gap can be explained by women’s lower confidence levels. Both financial knowledge and confidence explain stock market participation.
Gastvortrag: Regulatorisch getriebene Transformation der Sustainability-Berichterstattung
Ort: Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin Hörsaal 103
Gastvortrag von Prof. Yang: China's Market Reforms and Transition
Gastvortrag von Prof. Laike Yang (East China Normal University, Shanghai)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin Online-event via Cisco WebEx
Lerngruppen-SpeedDating Dritties BWL
Ort: HS 102, Garystr. 21
Lerngruppen-SpeedDating Mathematik
Ort: HS 102, Garystr. 21
Research Seminar in Economics, Christian Lehmann
Abstract: Residents of civil war countries must decide whether to stay or flee, often without reliable information about costs and benefits of fleeing. Using original survey data on Syrian refugees, I present evidence that residents solve this information problem by imitating the emigration decision of other residents. However, if everybody imitates others and nobody knows the true costs and benefits of fleeing, then there is a substantial chance that many make the wrong decision. The right decision, for example, is to flee when staying means death. Empirically, however, I find no relationship between survey respondents’ propensity to flee and objective measures of death risk in their origin location in Syria, which perhaps indicates that people make wrong emigration decisions. My findings suggest a new form of humanitarian aid in conflict zones: the distribution of information.
Lerngruppen-SpeedDating Makroökonomie
Ort: HS 102, Garystr. 21
Lerngruppen-SpeedDating Externe Unternehmensrechnung
Ort: HS 102, Garystr. 21
Lerngruppen-SpeedDating Dritties VWL
Ort: HS 102, Garystr. 21
Research Seminar in Economics, Helmut Rainer
Abstract: Domestic violence is ubiquitous, with millions of women worldwide being repeatedly victimized by their intimate partners. So how should police officers respond to domestic violence incidents in order to maximize the likelihood that battered women will not be victimized again? We develop and apply a novel instrumental variable strategy to explore how arresting batterers is linked to repeat domestic violence. Drawing upon unique and extremely detailed administrative data on hundreds of thousands domestic violence incidents recorded by a major police force in Great Britain, we exploit (i) that the availability and geographical location of patrol officers to assign to respond to an domestic violence incident is "as good as random", and (ii) that patrol officers differ systematically in their propensity to arrest suspected batters. We find that arrest can break cycles of domestic violence, decreasing the probability that victims are revictimized within 12 months by 31 percentage points. Exploiting domestic violence calls initiated by third parties rather than victims, we provide evidence indicating that reductions in domestic violence reporting do not drive the arrest effect. To explain why arrest deters repeat domestic violence, we demonstrate that it paths the way to immediate criminal sanctions against suspected batterers: it increases the likelihood a suspect batterer faces a criminal investigation, is retained in custody during the investigation, and is charged with a crime. In stark contrast to recent calls for a decriminalization of domestic violence, our results suggest that the optimal police response to domestic violence involves a low threshold of tolerance towards batterers.
Gastvortrag von Dr. Ruvituso: Latin American Dependency-Theories: Origins, Impacts and Global Circulation
Gastvortrag von Dr. Clara Ruvituso (Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin Online-Veranstaltung (WebEx)
Kurs Literaturrecherche | Finalistenschulung
Ort: HS 108a
Research Seminar in Economics, Matthias Neuenkirch
Abstract: The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines dimensionality reduction, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 146 popular macroeconomic and financial variables using different principal component analysis techniques. Second, we estimate one-step Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the principal components as predictors. Third, we pool the models in forecast clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of different specifications. Our weekly forecasts respond to regime changes in a timely manner to participate in recoveries or to prevent losses. This is also reflected in an improvement of risk-adjusted performance measures as compared to several benchmarks. However, when considering stock market returns, our forecasts do not outperform common benchmarks. Nevertheless, these add statistical and, in particular, economic value during recessions or in declining markets.
Gastvortrag von Prof. Sai-Wing Ho: Three Pioneers in Developement: Prebisch, Singer and Hirschman
This guest lecture will be held by Dr. Peter Sai-Wing Ho (University of Denver)
Ort: ZI Lateinamerika-Institut der Freien Universität Berlin Online-event via Cisco WebEx
Research Seminar in Economics, Bernhard Kassner
Abstract: We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their own judgment. Our results show that, in line with theoretical predictions, an excessive degree of confidence in one's judgment is correlated with lower portfolio diversification, larger stock price forecasting errors, and more extreme political views. Additionally, we find that overconfidence is correlated with voting absenteeism. These results appear to validate our method and show how overconfidence is a bias that permeates several aspects of peoples' life.
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Research Seminar in Economics, Mathias Huebener
Abstract: Motherhood and parental leave interrupt employment relationships, likely imposing costs on firms. We document that mothers who are difficult to replace internally take shorter leave and that their firms hire replacements more often. Introducing more generous parental leave benefits erases the link between mothers’ internal replaceability and their leave duration. In firms with few internal substitutes this reduces employment in the short-, but not longer-term. Firms respond by hiring fewer women of childbearing age into occupations where they are difficult to replace internally. Taken together, motherhood and generous parental leave policies burden firms that have few internal substitutes available.
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: PC-Pool 2
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: Selbstlernkurs
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: HS 108a
Kurs Fit4Bib für Neustudierende
Ort: HS 108a
WoMenventures Summer School
Ort: Einstein Center Digital Future
Research Seminar in Economics, Steffen Ahrens
Asset Price Dynamics and Endogenous Trader Overconfidence Abstract: Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial decision making and commonly associated with excessive trading and asset price volatility. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, “static” personality trait. Using a new experimental design, we show that trader overconfidence is endogenous and co-moves with asset prices; when asset prices go up, overconfidence rises, and when asset prices go down, overconfidence falls. Larger fluctuations in asset prices are met by larger changes in overconfidence. Hence, our results point towards a feedback loop in which overconfidence adds fuel to the flame of existing bubbles.
Ort: Online Presentation
Research Seminar in Economics, Josef Brüderl: "The Age Trajectory of Happiness: How Lack of Causal Reasoning has Produced the Myth of a U-Shaped Age-Happiness Trajectory"
Abstract: A large interdisciplinary literature on the relationship between age and subjective well-being (happiness) has produced very mixed evidence. Virtually every conceivable age-happiness trajectory has been supported by empirical evidence and theoretical arguments. Sceptics may conclude that the social science of happiness can only produce arbitrary results. In this paper we argue that this conclusion is premature. Instead, the methodological toolbox that has been developed by the modern literature on causal inference gives scholars everything they need to arrive at valid conclusions: the causal inference toolbox only must be applied by happiness researchers. We identify four potential sources of bias that may distort the assessment of the age-happiness relationship. By causal reasoning we derive a model specification that avoids these biases. For an empirical illustration, we use the longest running panel study with information on happiness, the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2017; N persons=70,922; N person-years =565,703). With these data we demonstrate the relevance of the four biases and how combinations of different biases can reproduce almost any finding from the literature. Most biases tend to produce a spuriously U-shaped age trajectory, the most prominent finding from the literature. In contrast, with our specification we find a (nearly monotonic) declining age-happiness trajectory.
Ort: Online Presentation
Business&Beer meets WoMenventures
Ort: Online