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Publications Helge Berger

Working Papers      Journals     Edited Volumes     Books      Policy Contributions


(a) Working Papers

"Money as Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest" (with Henning Weber), IMF Working Paper, WP/12/6, January 2012

"The Euro's Effect on Trade Imbalances." (with Volker Nitsch), IMF Working Paper, WP/10/226, October 2010.

"Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade." (with Volker Nitsch), Manuscript, November 2008.

"What Determines Fiscal Policy? Evidence from German States" (with Anika Holler), CESifo Working Paper, 2062, July 2007.

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(b) Journals

"The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation." (with Emil Stavrev), Journal of Applied Economics, 44(31), 2012, p. 4055-4072.

"How German Labor Courts Decide –an Econometric Case Study–" (with Michael Neugart), German Economic Review, Vol. 13, Issue 1, 2012, p. 56-70.

"Geography, Skills or Both: What Explains Fed Watchers' Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 2011, p. 420-437.

"Monetary Policy in the Media" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 43(4), 2011, p. 689-709.

"Labor Courts, Nomination Bias, and Unemployment in Germany" (with Michael Neugart), European Journal of Political Economy, 27(4), 2011, p. 659-673.

"Too Many Cooks? Committees in Monetary Policy" (with Volker Nitsch), Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 78, No. 2, October 2011, p. 452-475.

''Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication'' (with Jakob de Haan and Jan-Egbert Sturm), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 16(1), 2011, p. 16-31.

"Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs." (with Pär Österholm), The Economic Record, Vol. 87, No. 276, March 2011, p. 45-66.

"Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence From Bayesian VARs." (with Pär Österholm), CESifo Journal, 16(1), 2011, 16-31.

"Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?" (with Thomas Harjes), International Finance, 12(1), 2009, p.33-55.

"Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is  A Matter of Geography" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), European Economic Review 53, 2009, p. 1028-1041.

"Does Money Still Matter for U.S. Output?" (with Pär Österholm), Economic Letters, 102(3), 2009, p. 143-146.

"Central Bank Boards Around the World: Why does Membership Size Differ?" (with Volker Nitsch and Tonny Lybeck), European Journal of Political Economy, 24(4), 2008, p. 817-832. 

"Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective" (with Volker Nitsch), Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(8), 2008, p. 1244-1260.

"Does Financial Integration Make Banks Act More Prudential? Regulation, Foreign Owned Banks and the Lender-Of-Last-Resort" (with Carsten Hefeker),International Economics and Economic Policy, 4(4), 2008, p. 371-393.

"The Employment Effects of Labor and Product Markets Deregulation and Their Implications for Structural Reform" (with Stephan Danninger), IMF Staff Papers, 54(3), 2007, p. 591-619.

"How Should Large and Small Countries Be Represented in a Currency Union?" (with Till Müller, Public Choice, 132, 2007. p. 471-484.
(A more extensive version,  including a number of results referenced in the final paper, is available as CESifo Working Paper 1344.)

"Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor?" (with Goerge Kopits and István Székely), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 54(1), 2007, p. 116-135.

"Optimal Central Bank Design: Benchmarks for the ECB", The Review of International Organizations, 1(3), 2006, p. 207-235.

"One Country, One Vote? Labor Market Structure and Voting Rights in the ECB" (with Carsten Hefeker), Journal of Economic Integration, 20(4), 2005, p. 627-687.

"Does Conservatism Matter? A Times Series Approach to Central Banking" (with Ulrich Woitek), The Economic Journal , 115, July 2005. p.745-766.

"Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis" (with Jan-Egbert Sturm and Jakob de Haan), Economics and Politics, 17(5), 2005, p. 117-213.

"Why Did the Stability and Growth Pact Fail?" (with Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen), International Finance, 7(2), 2004, p. 235-260.

"Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions" (with Carsten Hefeker and Ronnie Schoeb), IMF Staff Papers, 51(3), 2004, p. 585-605.

"Are Small Countries too Powerful Within the ECB?" (with Jakob de Haan), Atlantic Economic Journal, 30(3), 2002. p. 1-20.

"How to Reduce Inflation: an Independent Central Bank or a Currency Board? The Experience of the Baltic Countries" (with Jakob de Haan and Erik van Fraassen), Emerging Markets Review, 2(3), 2001, p. 218-243.

"Factor Price Equalization? The Cointegration Approach Revisited" (with Frank Westermann), Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 137(3), 2001, p. 525-536.

"To Peg or Not to Peg? A Simple Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Small Economies" (with Henrik Jensen and Guttorm Schjelderup), Economic Letters, 73(2), 2001, p. 161-167.

"Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848" (with Mark Spoerer), Journal of Economic History, 61(2), 2001, p. 293-326.

"The German Political Business Cycle: Money Demand Rather Than Monetary Policy" (with Ulrich Woitek), European Journal of Political Economy, 17(3), 2001, p. 609-631.

"Central Bank Independence: Update on Theory and Evidence" (with Sylvester Eijfinger and Jakob de Haan), Journal of Economic Surveys, 15(1), 2001, p. 3-40.
For an earlier, somewhat longer, version see CEPR Discussion Paper, 2353, January 2000. Also available als CESifo Working Paper, 255, 2000.

"News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government" (with Marcel Thum), German Economic Review, 1(4), 2000, p. 465-493.

"A State within a State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank" (with Jakob de Haan), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 46(1), 1999, p. 17-39.

"Regulation in Germany: Some Stylized Facts About Its Time Path, Causes and Consequences", Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, 118(2), 1998, p.185-220.

"The Bundesbank's Path to Independence. Evidence from the 1950's", Public Choice, 93, 1997, p. 427-453.

"Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany" (with Ulrich Woitek), Public Choice, 91(2), 1997, p. 179-197.

"How Opportunistic are Partisan German Central Bankers: Evidence on the Vaubel Hypothesis" (with Ulrich Woitek), European Journal of Political Economy, 13(4), 1997, p. 807-822.

"Die aktuelle Debatte um Zentralbankunabhängigkeit: Theoretische und empirische Fragen", Zeitschrift für Unternehmensgeschichte, 41(1), 1997, p. 89-111.

"Die Rekonstruktion der Arbeitsteilung in Europa, Eine neue Sicht des Marshallplans in Deutschland 1947-1951" (with Albrecht Ritschl), Vierteljahreshefte für Zeitgeschichte, 3, 1995, p. 473-519.

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(c) Edited Volumes

"Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade" (with Volker Nitsch), in: Claudia Costa-Storti and Paul de Grauwe (eds.), Illicit Trade and the Global Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2012, 49-72.

"Inflexibilities and Trade Imbalances: Evidence from Europe" (with Volker Nitsch), in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2011, 141-153.

"The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited" (with Thomas Harjes and Emil Stavrev), in: Helge Berger and Jakob de Haan (eds.), The European Central Bank At Ten, Berlin: Springer, 2010, 33-86.

"Designing Europe - A Survey of Tasks Ahead" (with Thomas Moutos), in: Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos (eds.), Designing the New European Union, Oxford: Elsevier, 2006, p. 3-29.

"Is the ECB Too Decentralized?" (with Jakob de Haan and Robert Inklaar), in: Hans-Werner Sinn, Mika Widgren and Marko Köthenburger (eds.), European Monetary Integration, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004, p. 71-97.

"Restructuring the ECB" (with Jakob de Haan and Robert Inklaar), in: Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos (eds.), Managing European Union Enlargement, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004, p. 29-66.

"Introduction" (with Thomas Moutos) in: Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos (eds.), Managing EU Enlargement, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004, p. 1-10.

"How To Tie Your Hands: Currency Board Versus Independent Central Banks" (with Jakob de Haan), in: Andy Mullineux and Victor Murinde (eds.), Handbook of International Banking, Cheltenhang: Edward Elgar, 2003, p. 156-172.

"La Bank deutscher Länder et le 'miracle économique' allemand, la politique monétaire de l'Allemagne dans les années 1950 ("The Bank deutscher Länder and the ""Wirtschaftswunder": German Monetary Policy in the 1950s"), Banque de France (ed.), Politiques et practiques des banques d'émission en Europe (XVIIième-XXième siècle), Paris: Banque de France, 2003, p- 623-655.

"Central Bank Indepence: An Update of Theory and Evidence" (with Sylvester Eijffinger and Jakob de Haan), in: Stuart Sayer (ed.), Issues in New Political Economy, Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 2001, p. 173-210.

"The Bundesbank's Reaction to Policy Conflicts" (with Friedrich Schneider), in: Jakob de Haan (ed.), 50 Years of Bundesbank: Lessons for the ECB, London: Routledge, 2000, p. 43-66.

"Nicht Ideen, sondern Hunger? Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Vormärz und Revolution 1848 in Deutschland und Europa" (with Mark Spoerer), in: Dieter Langewiesche (ed.), Demokratiebewegung und Revolution 1847 bis 1849: Internationale Aspekte und Verbindungen, Karlsruhe: Braun, 1998, p. 140-184.

"Germany and the Political Economy of the Marshall Plan, 1947-52: A Re-Revisionist View" (with Albrecht Ritschl), in: Barry Eichengreen (ed.), Europe's Post-War Recovery, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. p. 199-245.

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(d) Books

The European Central Bank at Ten (with Jakob de Haan, eds.), Berlin: Springer, 2010.

Currency Boards in Retrospect and Prospect (with Holger Wolf, Atish Gosh and Anne-Marie Gulde), CESifo Book Series, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008.

Global Economic Imbalances: Prospects and Remedies (with Sarantis Kalyvitis and Thomas Moutos, eds.),  Review of International Economics, 16(3), special section, 2008, p. 478-610.

Designing the New European Union (with Thomas Moutos, eds.), Oxford: Elsevier, 2006.

Managing European Union Enlargement (with Thomas Moutos, eds.), Cambrigde MA: The MIT Press, 2004.

Konjunkturpolitik im Wirtschaftswunder: Handlungsspielräume und Verhaltensmuster von Bundesbank und Regierung in den 1950er Jahren (Stabilization Policy During the Wirtschaftswunder: Behavioural Patterns of the Bundesbank and Scope of Action of the Government), Tübingen: J.C. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), 1997.

Einführung in die Mikrooökonomie (Introduction into Microeconomics) (with Edwin von Böventer et al.), München: Oldenbourg, 1997 (9th edition).

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(e) Policy Contributions (selected)

"Beyond the Crisis", Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, October 2009, 1-29.

"The Crisis and Potential Output", Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, October 2009, 31-40.

"Comparing Recessions in Germany, Spain, and United Kingdom", (with Ravi Balakrishnan), IMF Survey, November 2009

"Unobservables, uncertainty, and exit", (with Emil Stavrev), Voxeu.org, October 2009.

"Enough is enough: How many people should decide about monetary policy?", VoxEU.org, May 2008.

"Unfinished Business? The ECB Reform Ahead of Euro Area Enlargement", CESifo Forum, 4/2006, p. 34-41.

"Mächtige Richter" (Editorial on the Impact of German Labor Courts on Unemployment; with Michael Neugart), Financial Times Deutschland, 5 October 2006, p. 34.

"Forecasting European Central Bank Monetary Policy" (with Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher), IMF Survey, 35(13), July 2006, p. 208.

"Optimal Central Bank Desing: Benchmarks for the ECB", OeNB Workshops, 7/2006, p. 197-229 (also forthcoming in The Review of International Organizations).

"Germany: Is Too Much Regulation Preventing Faster Growth?" (with Stephan Danninger), IMF Survey, 36 (2), January 2006, p. 28-29.

"Does Excessive Regulation Impede Growth in Germany?" (with Stephan Danninger), IMF Country Report, 06/17, January 2006, p. 106-133.

"Assessing the Cost of Terrorism. On the impact of Terror-News on the German Economy" (with Jan-Egbert Sturm), Media Tenor Quarterly Journal, 1/2005, p. 12-15.

"Die Wirkung des Euro auf den Handel in historischer Perspektive" (Article on the trade effect of the Euro) (with Volker Nitsch), ifo Schnelldienst, 15, 2005, p. 12-15.

"Die segensreiche Wirkung von Erbhöfen" (Editorial on Bini Smagi's nomination for the ECB Council), Financial Times Deutschland, 9 March, 2005, p. 30.

"The Impact of Fiscal Policy in Finland" (with Louis Kuijs), IMF Country Report, 03/326, Washington, October 2003.

"Estimating the Output Gap in Finland" (with Andreas Billmeier), IMF Country Report, 03/326, Washington, October 2003.

"External Sector Issues in Hungary". IMF Country Report, 03/125, Washington, May 2003.

"Restructuring the ECB" (with Jakob de Haan and Robert Inklaar), CESifo Working Paper, 1084, November 2003.

"The ECB and Euro-Area Enlargement", IMF Working Paper, 02/175, October 2002.

"Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes, An Empirical Investigation" (with Jakob de Haan and Jan-Egbert Sturm), CESifo Working Paper, 433, March 2001.

"An Empirical Investigation Into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility" (with Jakob de Haan and Jan-Egbert Sturm), CESifo Working Paper, 263, March 2000.

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